IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i15p7089-d1717955.html

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Aridity Index in Central Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Sanim Bissenbayeva

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Dana Shokparova

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Jilili Abuduwaili

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Alim Samat

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Long Ma

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yongxiao Ge

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanim Bissenbayeva & Dana Shokparova & Jilili Abuduwaili & Alim Samat & Long Ma & Yongxiao Ge, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Aridity Index in Central Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:7089-:d:1717955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/7089/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/7089/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janaína Cassiano Santos & Gustavo Bastos Lyra & Marcel Carvalho Abreu & José Francisco Oliveira-Júnior & Leonardo Bohn & Gisleine Cunha-Zeri & Marcelo Zeri, 2022. "Aridity indices to assess desertification susceptibility: a methodological approach using gridded climate data and cartographic modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2531-2558, April.
    2. Irina Vitkovskaya & Madina Batyrbayeva & Nurmaganbet Berdigulov & Damira Mombekova, 2024. "Prospects for Drought Detection and Monitoring Using Long-Term Vegetation Indices Series from Satellite Data in Kazakhstan," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Stanislav E. Shmelev & Vitaliy Salnikov & Galina Turulina & Svetlana Polyakova & Tamara Tazhibayeva & Tobias Schnitzler & Irina A. Shmeleva, 2021. "Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheikh Omar Tidjani Cissé & Ivan Marić & Fran Domazetović & Katarina Glavačević & Rafael Almar, 2024. "Derivation of Coastal Erosion Susceptibility and Socio-Economic Vulnerability Models for Sustainable Coastal Management in Senegal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-29, August.
    2. Xing, Xiuwei & Wei, Shujie & Chen, Xi & Qian, Jing & Peng, Shuhong & Sun, Jiayu & Sun, Bo & Chen, Chaoliang, 2026. "A deep learning-based composite agricultural drought index for monitoring and impact assessment in Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    3. Laura Ryssaliyeva & Vitaliy Salnikov & Zhaohui Lin & Zhanar Raimbekova, 2025. "Seasonal Sensitivity of Drought Indices in Northern Kazakhstan: A Comparative Evaluation and Selection of Optimal Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-25, October.
    4. Wen Huo & Fan Yang & Xiefei Zhi & Ali Mamtimin & Qing He & Honglin Pan & Cong Wen & Yu Wang & Ye Wu & Xinghua Yang & Chenglong Zhou & Meiqi Song & Lu Meng & Minzhong Wang, 2022. "A Comparative Study on the Difference in Meteorological Monitoring between Constructed Green Land and Natural Sandy Land," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Bin Fan & Ziyue Li & Qingmei Zeng, 2025. "Measurement and Convergence Analysis of the Green Total Factor Productivity of Citrus in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-29, August.
    6. Tamilarasu Arivelarasan & V. S. Manivasagam & Vellingiri Geethalakshmi & Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari & Kiruthika Natarajan & Mohan Balasubramanian & Ramasamy Gowtham & Raveendran Muthurajan, 2023. "How Far Will Climate Change Affect Future Food Security? An Inquiry into the Irrigated Rice System of Peninsular India," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Balgyn Ashimova & Raikhan Beisenova & Ignacio Menéndez-Pidal, 2025. "Assessing Long-Term Land-Cover Dynamics Along the Presnogorkovskaya–Zhanaesil Railway Corridor (1985–2024), Kazakhstan: A Landsat NDVI Buffer-Gradient Approach for Sustainable Rail Infrastructure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-21, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:7089-:d:1717955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.