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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Aridity Index in Central Kazakhstan

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  • Sanim Bissenbayeva

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Dana Shokparova

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Jilili Abuduwaili

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Alim Samat

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Long Ma

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yongxiao Ge

    (China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
    State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanim Bissenbayeva & Dana Shokparova & Jilili Abuduwaili & Alim Samat & Long Ma & Yongxiao Ge, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Aridity Index in Central Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:7089-:d:1717955
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Irina Vitkovskaya & Madina Batyrbayeva & Nurmaganbet Berdigulov & Damira Mombekova, 2024. "Prospects for Drought Detection and Monitoring Using Long-Term Vegetation Indices Series from Satellite Data in Kazakhstan," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Janaína Cassiano Santos & Gustavo Bastos Lyra & Marcel Carvalho Abreu & José Francisco Oliveira-Júnior & Leonardo Bohn & Gisleine Cunha-Zeri & Marcelo Zeri, 2022. "Aridity indices to assess desertification susceptibility: a methodological approach using gridded climate data and cartographic modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2531-2558, April.
    3. Stanislav E. Shmelev & Vitaliy Salnikov & Galina Turulina & Svetlana Polyakova & Tamara Tazhibayeva & Tobias Schnitzler & Irina A. Shmeleva, 2021. "Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
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