Forced Displacement and Agriculture: Implications for Host Communities

The disruptive effects of conflict and climate-related shocks and their tendencies to cause human population displacements are well documented in the literature. Given the growing number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) worldwide and the resulting population and service demand overload in host communities, it is important to understand the socioeconomic impacts. Because many host communities in developing countries are agriculture dependent, we investigate what happens to key agricultural sector outcomes in host communities when there is an influx of IDPs. For displacements caused by insurgency, communal clashes, and natural disasters, we estimate the impacts on agricultural outputs, employment, wages, and land use. We find that forced displacements generally result in reduced agricultural production due to lower land and labor productivity. Specifically, while the effect of insurgency-driven IDP influx is negative, it is positive for communal violence. Cassava, potatoes, and soya are particularly hard hit. Additionally, while insurgency-driven population influx reduces the agricultural wages of both males and females, it increases the reliance on male and female household labor but has no effect on hired labor. Finally, while insurgency-driven IDP influx does not affect land use and land market activities, it lowers the expected value of land and the number of farm plots harvested. We highlight the opportunity to leverage humanitarian assistance in building local agricultural capacity in host communities.