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An Integrated Approach to the Realization of Saudi Arabia’s Energy Sustainability

Author

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  • Mohammed Siddig H. Mohammed

    (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80204, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia)

  • Abdulsalam Alhawsawi

    (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80204, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
    Center for Training & Radiation Prevention, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80204, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia)

  • Abdelfattah Y. Soliman

    (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80204, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

As system thinking is a recognized approach to the comprehension and realization of energy sustainability, this paper applies a holistic representation to the World Energy Trilemma Index (WETI) key indicators using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to illuminate the probabilistic information of their influences in Saudi Arabia’s context. The reached realization is suggested to inform the policies to improve energy sustainability, and thus the country’s rank in the WETI. The analysis used two groups of learning cases, one used the energy statistics of the period from 1995 to 2019 to show the outlook of the Business as Usual path, and the other addressed the projected data for the period from 2018 to 2037 to investigate the expected impact of the new policies. For both BAU and new policies, the BBN calculated the improvement, stability, and declining beliefs. The most influential factors on energy sustainability performance were the electricity generation mix, CO 2 emissions, energy intensity, and energy storage. Moreover, the interlinkage between the influential indicators and their causes was estimated in the new policies model. A back-casting analysis was carried out to show the changes required to drive the improvement belief to 100%. The compiled BBN can be used to support structuring policymaking and analyzing the projections’ outcomes by investigating different scenarios for improvement probabilities of energy sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Siddig H. Mohammed & Abdulsalam Alhawsawi & Abdelfattah Y. Soliman, 2020. "An Integrated Approach to the Realization of Saudi Arabia’s Energy Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:205-:d:469406
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Matar, Walid & Anwer, Murad, 2017. "Jointly reforming the prices of industrial fuels and residential electricity in Saudi Arabia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 747-756.
    5. Šprajc, Polona & Bjegović, Miroslav & Vasić, Bojana, 2019. "Energy security in decision making and governance - Methodological analysis of energy trilemma index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
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