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From Uncertainties to Successful Start Ups: A Data Analytic Approach to Predict Success in Technological Entrepreneurship

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  • Sarath Tomy

    () (Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, La Trobe University, Kingsbury Drive, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia)

  • Eric Pardede

    () (Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, La Trobe University, Kingsbury Drive, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia)

Abstract

Understanding uncertainties and assessing the risks surrounding business opportunities is essential to support the success of sustainable entrepreneurial initiatives launched on a daily basis. The contribution of this study is the identification of uncertainties surrounding opportunities in the opportunity evaluation stage of the entrepreneurial process and the examination of how the analysis and evaluation of uncertainty factors, with the help of data, can predict the future success of an organization. In the first phase, the uncertainty factors are classified based on their sources and we discuss the likely implications towards new venture success with the help of existing literatures. In the second phase, a success prediction model is implemented using machine learning techniques and strategic analysis. The model is trained in such a way that, when new data emerges, the qualitative data is transformed into quantitative data and the probability of success or failure is calculated as the result output in the pre-start-up phase. The method and findings would be relevant for nascent entrepreneurs and researchers focusing on sustainable technology entrepreneurship.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarath Tomy & Eric Pardede, 2018. "From Uncertainties to Successful Start Ups: A Data Analytic Approach to Predict Success in Technological Entrepreneurship," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(3), pages 1-1, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:602-:d:133506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebestova Jarmila & Rylkova Zaneta & Smysl Marek, 2007. "How to Gain Success in SME? A Case Study of a region in the Czech Republic," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 2(1), pages 41-47, April.
    2. Christian Hopp & Ute Stephan, 2012. "The influence of socio-cultural environments on the performance of nascent entrepreneurs: Community culture, motivation, self-efficacy and start-up success," Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9-10), pages 917-945, December.
    3. Ardichvili, Alexander & Cardozo, Richard & Ray, Sourav, 2003. "A theory of entrepreneurial opportunity identification and development," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 105-123, January.
    4. Stein W. Wallace, 2000. "Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Is Sensitivity Analysis of Any Use?," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(1), pages 20-25, February.
    5. Kuechle Graciela & Béatrice Boulu-Reshef & Sean D. Carr, 2016. "Prediction- and Control-Based Strategies in Entrepreneurship: The Role of Information," Post-Print hal-01296948, HAL.
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    8. Robert A. Baron & Michael D. Ensley, 2006. "Opportunity Recognition as the Detection of Meaningful Patterns: Evidence from Comparisons of Novice and Experienced Entrepreneurs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1331-1344, September.
    9. Jonathan P. O'Brien & Timothy B. Folta & Douglas R. Johnson, 2003. "A real options perspective on entrepreneurial entry in the face of uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 515-533.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang Hee Yoon & Francis Joseph Costello & Cheong Kim, 2019. "Assisting Sustainable Entrepreneurial Activities Through the Analysis of Mobile IT Services’ Success and Failure Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(20), pages 1-1, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    entrepreneurship; uncertainties; success prediction;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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