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COVID-19 Pandemic and Investor Herding in International Stock Markets

Author

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  • Elie Bouri

    (School of Business, Lebanese American University, Jbeil P.O. Box 36, Lebanon)

  • Riza Demirer

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026, USA)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Jacobus Nel

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to understand the effect of the recent novel coronavirus pandemic on investor herding behavior in global stock markets. Utilizing a daily newspaper-based index of financial uncertainty associated with infectious diseases, we examine the association between pandemic-induced market uncertainty and herding behavior in a set of 49 global stock markets. More specifically, we study the pattern of cross-sectional market behavior and examine whether the pandemic-induced uncertainty drives directional similarity across the global stock markets that cannot be explained by the standard asset pricing models. Utilizing a time-varying variation of the static herding model, we first identify periods during which herding is detected. We then employ probit models to examine the possible association between pandemic-induced uncertainty and the formation of herding. Our findings show a strong association between herd formation in stock markets and COVID-19 induced market uncertainty. The herding effect of COVID-19 induced market uncertainty is particularly strong for emerging stock markets as well as European PIIGS stock markets that include some of the hardest hit economies in Europe by the pandemic. The findings establish a direct link between the recent pandemic and herd formation among market participants in global financial markets. Considering the evidence that herding behavior can drive security prices away from equilibrium values supported by fundamentals and further contribute to price fluctuations in financial markets, our findings have significant implications for policy makers and investors in their efforts to monitor investor sentiment and mitigate mis-valuations that might occur as a result. Furthermore, the evidence on the behavioral pattern of stock investors in relation to infectious diseases uncertainty can be useful in studying price discovery in stock markets and might help market participants in forming hedging strategies to mitigate downside risk in their investment portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Investor Herding in International Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-11, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:9:p:168-:d:634456
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    14. Md Qamar Azam & Nazia Iqbal Hashmi & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Md Shabbir Alam & Mirza Allim Baig, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Overconfidence Bias: The Case of Cyclical and Defensive Sectors," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    15. Fatima Iqbal & Dr. Sadia Farooq & Dr. Sajid Nazir, 2023. "Herd behavior in stock markets during COVID’ 19 Pandemic: A machine learning approach," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 268-273.
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    18. Nikolai I. Berzon & Maksim M. Novikov & Elena L. Pozharskaya & Yulia I. Bakhturina, 2022. "Monitoring the Modern Experience of Financial Risk Management in Russia Based on Corporate Social Responsibility for Sustainable Development," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, April.
    19. Yener, Coskun & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2023. "Stock Market Responses to COVID-19: The Behaviors of Mean Reversion, Dependence and Persistence," MPRA Paper 117002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Cosmin Octavian Cepoi & Victor Dragotă & Ruxandra Trifan & Andreea Iordache, 2023. "Probability of informed trading during the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of the Romanian stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    21. Josua Sinaga & Ting Wu & Yu-wang Chen, 2022. "Impact of government interventions on the stock market during COVID-19: a case study in Indonesia," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-35, September.
    22. Faisal Alnori & Moid U. Ahmad, 2022. "Herd Mentality Amongst Equity Investors During COVID-19: Evidences from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 40-46, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; international stock markets; investor herding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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