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An EM Algorithm for Double-Pareto-Lognormal Generalized Linear Model Applied to Heavy-Tailed Insurance Claims

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Calderín-Ojeda

    (Centre for Actuarial Studies, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia)

  • Kevin Fergusson

    (Centre for Actuarial Studies, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia)

  • Xueyuan Wu

    (Centre for Actuarial Studies, Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia)

Abstract

Generalized linear models might not be appropriate when the probability of extreme events is higher than that implied by the normal distribution. Extending the method for estimating the parameters of a double Pareto lognormal distribution (DPLN) in Reed and Jorgensen (2004), we develop an EM algorithm for the heavy-tailed Double-Pareto-lognormal generalized linear model. The DPLN distribution is obtained as a mixture of a lognormal distribution with a double Pareto distribution. In this paper the associated generalized linear model has the location parameter equal to a linear predictor which is used to model insurance claim amounts for various data sets. The performance is compared with those of the generalized beta (of the second kind) and lognorma distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Calderín-Ojeda & Kevin Fergusson & Xueyuan Wu, 2017. "An EM Algorithm for Double-Pareto-Lognormal Generalized Linear Model Applied to Heavy-Tailed Insurance Claims," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-24, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:60-:d:117944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hajargasht, Gholamreza & Griffiths, William E., 2013. "Pareto–lognormal distributions: Inequality, poverty, and estimation from grouped income data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 593-604.
    2. Giesen, Kristian & Zimmermann, Arndt & Suedekum, Jens, 2010. "The size distribution across all cities - Double Pareto lognormal strikes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 129-137, September.
    3. Frees, Edward W. & Valdez, Emiliano A., 2008. "Hierarchical Insurance Claims Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1457-1469.
    4. McDonald, James B. & Butler, Richard J., 1990. "Regression models for positive random variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 227-251.
    5. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    6. Reed, William J., 2003. "The Pareto law of incomes—an explanation and an extension," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 319(C), pages 469-486.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tzougas, George & Yik, Woo Hee & Mustaqeem, Muhammad Waqar, 2019. "Insurance ratemaking using the Exponential-Lognormal regression model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101729, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Tzougas, George & Jeong, Himchan, 2021. "An expectation-maximization algorithm for the exponential-generalized inverse Gaussian regression model with varying dispersion and shape for modelling the aggregate claim amount," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108210, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. George Tzougas & Himchan Jeong, 2021. "An Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for the Exponential-Generalized Inverse Gaussian Regression Model with Varying Dispersion and Shape for Modelling the Aggregate Claim Amount," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Tzougas, George & Karlis, Dimitris, 2020. "An EM algorithm for fitting a new class of mixed exponential regression models with varying dispersion," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104027, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Krzysztof Burnecki & Mario Nicoló Giuricich, 2017. "Stable Weak Approximation at Work in Index-Linked Catastrophe Bond Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    8. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018.

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