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COVID-19 Intensity, Resilience, and Expected Returns

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  • Elham Daadmehr

    (Department of Economics and Management “Marco Fanno”, University of Padua, Via del Santo, 33, 35123 Padova, Italy)

Abstract

This paper provides a model to interpret the relative behavior of expected returns of high- and low-resilience assets from the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, including a novel definition of disaster based on COVID-19 intensity. The setup allows us to disentangle the probability of disaster and investors’ updating probability at each point in time which sheds light on how long-memory investors react to disaster risk and play a role in future prices. The theoretical results show higher revisions in expected return differentials in the case of any perception of a higher possibility of disaster or, equivalently, higher COVID-19 intensity. The intensity of COVID-19 can directly exacerbate the heterogeneity in expected returns for high- and low-resilience assets and their corresponding differentials. More importantly, an increase in COVID-19 intensity increases the expected returns of low-resilience assets more than those of high-resilience ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Elham Daadmehr, 2025. "COVID-19 Intensity, Resilience, and Expected Returns," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:60-:d:1616519
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elham Daadmehr, 2024. "Workplace sustainability or financial resilience? Composite-financial resilience index," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(2), pages 1-35, May.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    3. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
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