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Understanding of Macro Factors That Affect Yield of Government Bonds

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  • Ekaterina Koroleva

    (Graduate School of Industrial Economics, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia)

  • Maxim Kopeykin

    (Graduate School of Industrial Economics, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia)

Abstract

Government bonds are one of the safest and most attractive instruments in the investment portfolio for private investors and investment funds. Although bonds are perceived as an alternative to bank deposits, a number of macroeconomic factors influence their yield. The goal of the research is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the yield of government bonds. We use regression models on a dataset of 22 countries with post-industrial economics for ten years. The main criteria for selecting countries are membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and inclusion in the Top-25 countries on the competitiveness index. The results revealed a negative association between the yield of government bonds and gold. Moreover, we indicate a positive association between the yield of government bonds and the following indicators—inflation, oil prices, and GDP per capita. In the case of the influence of population savings and the uncertainty index, we obtain inconclusive results. The study contributes to ongoing research in the field of financial management with respect to investigating determinants of the yield of government bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina Koroleva & Maxim Kopeykin, 2022. "Understanding of Macro Factors That Affect Yield of Government Bonds," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-10, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:10:y:2022:i:8:p:166-:d:891111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Aretz, Kevin & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Pope, Peter F., 2010. "Macroeconomic risks and characteristic-based factor models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1383-1399, June.
    4. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
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