IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v10y2022i1p21-d723008.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Foglia

    (Department of Economics, “G. d’Annunzio” University of Pescara, Viale Pindaro 42, 65127 Pescara, Italy)

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to investigate the influence of macroeconomics determinants on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Italian banking system over the period 2008Q3–2020Q4. We mainly contribute to the literature by being the first empirical article to study this relationship in the Italian context in the recent period, thus providing fresh evidence on the macroeconomic impact on NPLs, i.e., on the credit risk of Italian banks. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model, we are able to investigate the short and long-run effects of macroeconomic factors on NPLs. The empirical findings show that gross domestic product and public debt have a negative impact on NPLs. On the other hand, we find that the unemployment rate and domestic credit positively influence impaired loans. Finally, we find evidence of the “gamble for resurrection” approach, i.e., Italian banks tend to support “zombie firms”.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Foglia, 2022. "Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:10:y:2022:i:1:p:21-:d:723008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/10/1/21/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/10/1/21/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2020. "Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," NBER Working Papers 27158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ari, Anil & Chen, Sophia & Ratnovski, Lev, 2021. "The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: A new database with post-COVID-19 implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2021. "The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: Identifying systemically important banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 7-26, January.
    4. Sahar Bahmani & Ali Kutan, 2010. "How stable is the demand for money in emerging economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3307-3318.
    5. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    9. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    10. Dimitrios, Anastasiou & Helen, Louri & Mike, Tsionas, 2016. "Determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from Euro-area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 116-119.
    11. Aswini Kumar Mishra & Shikhar Jain & Mohammad Abid & Manogna R L, 2021. "Macro‐economic determinants of non‐performing assets in the Indian banking system: A panel data analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3819-3834, July.
    12. Christopher Gandrud & Mark Hallerberg, 2017. "How not to create zombie banks- lessons for Italy from Japan," Policy Contributions 19387, Bruegel.
    13. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Helen Louri & Mike Tsionas, 2019. "Nonperforming loans in the euro area: Are core–periphery banking markets fragmented?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 97-112, January.
    16. Giovanni Favara & Camelia Minoiu & Ander Pérez-Orive, 2021. "U.S. Zombie Firms: How Many and How Consequential?," FEDS Notes 2021-07-30-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. George ANTON & Cosmin-Octavian CEPOI & Cătălin-Emilian HUIDUMAC-PETRESCU, 2022. "Estimating Probability of Default for Systemically Important Financial Institutions during Covid-19 Pandemic. Evidence from Europe and USA," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 44-53, April.
    2. Blessing Katuka & Calvin Mudzingiri & Edson Vengesai, 2023. "The effects of non-performing loans on bank stability and economic performance in Zimbabwe," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 13(6), pages 393-405.
    3. Chafic Saliba & Panteha Farmanesh & Seyed Alireza Athari, 2023. "Does country risk impact the banking sectors’ non-performing loans? Evidence from BRICS emerging economies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    4. Cândida Ferreira, 2022. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Panel Data Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 133-153, November.
    5. Seyed Alireza Athari & Chafic Saliba & Danielle Khalife & Madonna Salameh-Ayanian, 2023. "The Role of Country Governance in Achieving the Banking Sector’s Sustainability in Vulnerable Environments: New Insight from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Aleksandra Ostrowska, 2023. "Makroekonomiczne determinanty jakości kredytów dla sektora niefinansowego w Polsce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(5), pages 541-556.
    7. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2022. "Government debt accumulation and non-performing loans: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 150-160.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2021. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 160, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Cândida Ferreira, 2022. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Panel Data Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 133-153, November.
    3. Özen Ercan & Hodžić Sabina & Yildirim Ahmet Eren, 2022. "The Linkage Between Fiscal Policy and Non-Performing Household Loans in Turkey," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 113-124, December.
    4. Mariagrazia Fallanca & Antonio Fabio Forgione & Edoardo Otranto, 2021. "Do the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Have a Different Effect over Time? A Conditional Correlation Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    6. Maryem Naili & Younes Lahrichi, 2022. "The determinants of banks' credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 334-360, January.
    7. Imad Jabbouri & Maryem Naili, 2020. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the MENA Region," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-33, February.
    8. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    9. Svetozar Tanasković & Maja Jandrić, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(1), pages 47-62.
    10. Christos Christodoulou-Volos & Andreas Hadjixenophontos, 2017. "Empirical Determinants of the Non-Performing Loans in the Cypriot Banking System," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 1-1.
    11. Us, Vuslat, 2017. "Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-117.
    12. Teodor Hada & Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Iulia Cristina Iuga & Dorin Wainberg, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans of Romanian Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    13. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    14. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    15. Rahbar , Farhad & Behzadi Soufiani , Mohsen, 2021. "The Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Variables on Non-Performing Loans in Oil Cycles: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 135-164, June.
    16. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Zacharias Bragoudakis & Ioannis Malandrakis, 2019. "Non-performing loans, governance indicators and systemic liquidity risk: evidence from Greece," Working Papers 260, Bank of Greece.
    17. Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Credit risk and the business cycle: What do we know?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Dimitris ANASTASIOU, 2022. "Management and Resolution Methods of Non-performing Loans: A Review of the Literature," Springer Books, in: Hachmi BEN AMEUR & Zied FTITI & Wael LOUHICHI & Jean-Luc PRIGENT (ed.), Crises and Uncertainty in the Economy, chapter 0, pages 187-201, Springer.
    19. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    20. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2017. "The Interplay between Ex-post Credit Risk and the Cycles: Evidence from the Italian banks," MPRA Paper 79470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:10:y:2022:i:1:p:21-:d:723008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.