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Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover in Syria from 2010 to 2018 Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery and GIS

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Ali Mohamed

    (Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany)

  • Julian Anders

    (Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany)

  • Christoph Schneider

    (Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

Understanding the effects of socio-ecological shocks on land use/land cover (LULC) change is essential for developing land management strategies and for reducing adverse environmental pressures. Our study examines the impacts of the armed conflict in Syria, which began in mid-2011, and the related social and economic crisis on LULC between 2010 and 2018. We used remote sensing for change detection by applying a supervised maximum likelihood classification to Landsat images of the three target years 2010, 2014, and 2018. Based on the computed extent of our LULC classes and accuracy assessment, we calculated area-adjusted estimates and 95% confidence intervals. Our classification achieved an overall accuracy of 86.4%. Compared to 2010, we found an increase in spatial extent for bare areas (40,011 km 2 ), forests (2576 km 2 ), and urban and peri-urban areas (3560 km 2 ), whereas rangelands (37,005 km 2 ) and cultivated areas (9425 km 2 ) decreased by 2018. It is not possible to determine whether the changes in LULC in Syria will be permanent or temporary. Natural conditions such as climate fluctuations had an impact on the uses of the natural environment and cultivated areas during the study period, especially in regions suffering from water stress. Although seasonal precipitation patterns and temperature affect LULC change, however, we could not identify a prevailing climate trend towards more drought-prone conditions. Our analysis focuses on (potential) direct and indirect implications of the Syrian conflict on LULC change, which most notably occurred between 2014 and 2018. Conflict-related main drivers were human activities and demographic changes, which are mainly attributable to large-scale population displacement, military operations, concomitant socio-economic status, and control of local resources. As the study provides quantitative and qualitative information on the dynamics of LULC changes in Syria, it may serve as a framework for further relevant conflict-related research and support planning, management practices, and sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ali Mohamed & Julian Anders & Christoph Schneider, 2020. "Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover in Syria from 2010 to 2018 Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery and GIS," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-31, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:9:y:2020:i:7:p:226-:d:383239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vesco, P. & Baliki, G. & Brück, T. & Döring, S. & Eriksson, A. & Fjelde, H. & Guha-Sapir, D. & Hall, J. & Knutsen, C. H. & Leis, M. R. & Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Rudolfsen, I. & Swain, A., 2024. "The Impacts of Armed Conflict on Human Development," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2462, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Sesil Koutra & Christos S. Ioakimidis, 2022. "Unveiling the Potential of Machine Learning Applications in Urban Planning Challenges," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Abed Al Kareem Yehya & Thanh Thi Nguyen & Martin Wiehle & Rami Zurayk & Andreas Buerkert, 2025. "Six Decades of Rural Landscape Transformation in Five Lebanese Villages," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Vesco, Paola & Baliki, Ghassan & Brück, Tilman & Döring, Stefan & Eriksson, Anneli & Fjelde, Hanne & Guha-Sapir, Debarati & Hall, Jonathan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Leis, Maxine R. & Mueller, Hannes & , 2025. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Mohamed Ali Mohamed, 2021. "An Assessment of Forest Cover Change and Its Driving Forces in the Syrian Coastal Region during a Period of Conflict, 2010 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, February.

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