Increase in Grain Production Potential of China Under 2030 Well-Facilitated Farmland Construction Goal

To promote high-quality agricultural development and implement the “storing grain in the land” strategy, the construction of Well-Facilitated Farmland (WFF) plays a critical role in enhancing grain production capacity and optimizing the spatial distribution of food supply, thereby contributing to national food security. However, accurately assessing the potential impact of WFF construction on China’s grain production and regional self-sufficiency by 2030 remains a significant challenge. Existing studies predominantly focus on the provincial level, while fine-grained analyses at the city level are still lacking. This study quantifies the potential increase in grain production in China under the 2030 WFF construction target by employing effect size analysis, multi-weight prediction, and Monte Carlo simulation across multiple spatial scales (national, provincial, and city levels), thereby addressing the research gap at finer spatial resolutions. By integrating 2030 population projections and applying a grain self-sufficiency calculation formula, it further evaluates the contribution of WFF to regional grain self-sufficiency: (1) WFF could generate an additional 31–48 million tons of grain, representing a 5.26–8.25% increase; (2) grain supply in major crop-producing regions would expand, while the supply–demand gap in balanced regions would narrow; and (3) the number of cities with grain self-sufficiency ratios below 50% would decrease by 11.1%, while those exceeding 200% would increase by 25.5%. These findings indicate that WFF construction not only enhances overall grain production potential but also facilitates a transition from “overall supply-demand balance” to “structural security” within China’s food system. This study provides critical data support and policy insights for building a more resilient and regionally adaptive agricultural system.