Fluctuating Development Traits of Industrial Land Mismatch and Its Influence on Urban Ecological Modernization

Drawing on the longitudinal dataset from 262 cities at the provincial tier and higher across China between 2011 and 2022, this research employs the production model to formulate the China Urban Industrial Land Mismatch Index, quantifying the extent of industrial land misalignment across China. It also analyzes its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and regional differentiation characteristics, and explores the influence of China’s urban industrial land discordance on the advancement of urban ecological modernization. The key insights are outlined below. Firstly, across the entire spectrum of Chinese urban centers, cities from the eastern, central, and western zones, as well as those situated along the Yangtze River and the Yellow River basins, exhibit comparable patterns in industrial land misalignment. The extent of industrial land discordance has diminished, regional disparities have lessened to some degree, and there is an absence of polarization or the Matthew effect. Secondly, the variation in industrial land discordance within cities in the eastern region is the most pronounced, followed by the central region, with the western region showing the least disparity. The greatest contrast in the urban industrial land mismatch is found between the eastern and central regions. The primary driver of the discrepancy in industrial land misalignment across the eastern, central, and western regions is predominantly the ultra-variable density, followed by intra-regional disparities, with inter-regional differences contributing the least. Furthermore, the variation in the industrial land mismatch within cities in the Yangtze River Basin surpasses that within cities in the Yellow River Basin. The disparity in industrial land misalignment between the two follows a pattern of initially increasing, then decreasing, and subsequently rising again. The primary origin of this discrepancy lies within regional variations, followed by ultra-variable density, with inter-regional differences contributing the least. Thirdly, the regression analysis reveals that the discordance in industrial land use across Chinese cities exerts a substantial negative influence on urban ecological evolution. This effect operates through technological innovation and the employment levels in the secondary sector. Fourthly, industrial land discordance significantly hampers urban ecological advancement in the eastern region, shows a negative but statistically insignificant impact in the central region, and has a positive yet inconsequential effect in the western region. Moreover, the misalignment of industrial land exerts a notable suppressive influence on the ecological modernization of cities within the Yangtze River Basin, while it plays a significant role in fostering the ecological modernization of cities in the Yellow River Basin. Fifth, the mismatch of urban industrial land has produced significant negative spatial spillover effects on urban ecological modernization.