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Insights into Land-Use and Demographical Changes: Runoff and Erosion Modifications in the Highlands of Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Ana M. Petrović

    (Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Đure Jakšića 9, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Sanja Manojlović

    (Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Tanja Srejić

    (Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Nikola Zlatanović

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 63, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

Abstract

This research investigates the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) and demographical changes on runoff and erosion processes in the watersheds of border highlands in Serbia. It provides an interdisciplinary approach, linking demography (human geography) with physical geography (hydrology and geomorphology). (A) A predominant decrease in curve number (CN), a key hydrological indicator, is recorded in more than 20 watersheds in Eastern and Southeastern Serbia, largely due to continuous depopulation and abandonment of arable land over recent decades. In contrast, minor CN changes are dominant in over 10 watersheds in Western and Southwestern Serbia. (B) Through cluster analysis, four regions are spatially delineated by changes in four key indicators: runoff, soil erosion, agricultural land use, and rural population. Soil erosion change is correlated with the deagrarianisation and depopulation processes at a significance of p < 0.0001 with r = 0.580 and r = 0.629, respectively. The border watersheds are being studied for the first time using a complex approach that analyses the relationships between changes in demography, land use, surface runoff, and soil erosion. The study results contribute to a better understanding of sustainable land management and risk management in the hilly and mountainous border regions, which are particularly vulnerable to torrential flooding and soil erosion.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana M. Petrović & Sanja Manojlović & Tanja Srejić & Nikola Zlatanović, 2024. "Insights into Land-Use and Demographical Changes: Runoff and Erosion Modifications in the Highlands of Serbia," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:9:p:1342-:d:1463082
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana M. Petrović & Ivan Novković & Stanimir Kostadinov, 2021. "Hydrological analysis of the September 2014 torrential floods of the Danube tributaries in the Eastern Serbia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1373-1387, August.
    2. Tanja Srejić & Sanja Manojlović & Mikica Sibinović & Branislav Bajat & Ivan Novković & Marko V. Milošević & Ivana Carević & Mirjana Todosijević & Marko G. Sedlak, 2023. "Agricultural Land Use Changes as a Driving Force of Soil Erosion in the Velika Morava River Basin, Serbia," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Henry Kaiser, 1974. "An index of factorial simplicity," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 31-36, March.
    4. Nataša Veličković & Mirjana Todosijević & Desanaka Šulić, 2022. "Erosion Map Reliability Using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Erosion Potential Method (EPM): A Comparison of Mapping Methods, BELGRADE Peri-Urban Area, Serbia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Jiabo Chen & Fayun Li & Zhiping Fan & Yanjie Wang, 2016. "Integrated Application of Multivariate Statistical Methods to Source Apportionment of Watercourses in the Liao River Basin, Northeast China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-27, October.
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