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Evaluating Wheat Cultivation Potential in Ethiopia Under the Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios

Author

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  • Sintayehu Alemayehu

    (Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya
    The International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
    International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi P.O. Box 823-00621, Kenya)

  • Daniel Olago

    (Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya)

  • Alfred Opere

    (Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya)

  • Tadesse Terefe Zeleke

    (The International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
    Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O Box 1176, Ethiopia)

  • Sintayehu W. Dejene

    (The International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
    Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O Box 1176, Ethiopia)

Abstract

Land suitability analyses are crucial for identifying sustainable areas for agricultural crops and developing appropriate land use strategies. Thus, the present study aims to analyze the current and future land suitability for wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) cultivation in Ethiopia. Twelve variables including soil properties, climate variables, and topographic characteristics were used in the evaluation of land suitability. Statistical methods such as Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions (REOF), Coefficient of Variation (CV), correlation, and parametric and non-parametric trend analyses were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variability in current and future climate data and identified significant patterns of variability. For future projections of land suitability and climate, this study employed climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) framework, downscaled using regional climate model version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios: SSP1 (a lower emission scenario) and SSP5 (a higher emission scenario). Under the current condition, during March, April, and May (MAM), 53.4% of the country was suitable for wheat cultivation while 44.4% was not suitable. In 2050, non-suitable areas for wheat cultivation are expected to increase by 1% and 6.9% during MAM under SSP1 and SSP5 climate scenarios, respectively. Our findings highlight that areas currently suitable for wheat may face challenges in the future due to altered temperature and precipitation patterns, potentially leading to shifts in suitable areas or reduced productivity. This study also found that the suitability of land for wheat cultivation was determined by rainfall amount, temperature, soil type, soil pH, soil organic carbon content, soil nitrogen content, and elevation. This research underscores the critical importance of integrating spatiotemporal climate variability with future projections to comprehensively assess wheat suitability. By elucidating the implications of climate change on wheat cultivation, this study lays the groundwork for developing effective adaptation strategies and actionable recommendations to enhance management practices. The findings support the county’s commitment to refining agricultural land use strategies, increasing wheat production through suitability predictions, and advancing self-sufficiency in wheat production. Additionally, these insights can empower Ethiopia’s agricultural extension services to guide farmers in cultivating wheat in areas identified as highly and moderately suitable, thereby bolstering production in a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sintayehu Alemayehu & Daniel Olago & Alfred Opere & Tadesse Terefe Zeleke & Sintayehu W. Dejene, 2024. "Evaluating Wheat Cultivation Potential in Ethiopia Under the Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:11:p:1915-:d:1521213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Ayalew Mekonnen & Nicolas Gerber, 2017. "Aspirations and food security in rural Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(2), pages 371-385, April.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Belay Kassie & Senthold Asseng & Reimund Rotter & Huib Hengsdijk & Alex Ruane & Martin Ittersum, 2015. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 145-158, March.
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    5. Antonio Alberto Rodríguez Sousa & Jesús M. Barandica & Pedro A. Aguilera & Alejandro J. Rescia, 2020. "Examining Potential Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Other Driving Forces on the Sustainability of Spanish Olive Groves under a Socio-Ecological Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    6. Gebreselassie, Samuel & Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2017. "The Wheat Sector in Ethiopia: Current Status and Key Challenges for Future Value Chain Development," Working Papers 261290, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
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    1. Radosław Wolniak & Wiesław Wes Grebski, 2025. "Sustainable Trends and Determinants of Wheat Cultivation in Poland (2004–2023): A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Productivity, Resilience, and Climate Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-35, March.

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