IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i11p1915-d1521213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating Wheat Cultivation Potential in Ethiopia Under the Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Sintayehu Alemayehu

    (Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya
    The International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
    International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi P.O. Box 823-00621, Kenya)

  • Daniel Olago

    (Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya)

  • Alfred Opere

    (Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O Box 30197-00100, Kenya)

  • Tadesse Terefe Zeleke

    (The International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
    Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O Box 1176, Ethiopia)

  • Sintayehu W. Dejene

    (The International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
    Institute of Geophysics, Space Science and Astronomy, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O Box 1176, Ethiopia)

Abstract

Land suitability analyses are crucial for identifying sustainable areas for agricultural crops and developing appropriate land use strategies. Thus, the present study aims to analyze the current and future land suitability for wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) cultivation in Ethiopia. Twelve variables including soil properties, climate variables, and topographic characteristics were used in the evaluation of land suitability. Statistical methods such as Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions (REOF), Coefficient of Variation (CV), correlation, and parametric and non-parametric trend analyses were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variability in current and future climate data and identified significant patterns of variability. For future projections of land suitability and climate, this study employed climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) framework, downscaled using regional climate model version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios: SSP1 (a lower emission scenario) and SSP5 (a higher emission scenario). Under the current condition, during March, April, and May (MAM), 53.4% of the country was suitable for wheat cultivation while 44.4% was not suitable. In 2050, non-suitable areas for wheat cultivation are expected to increase by 1% and 6.9% during MAM under SSP1 and SSP5 climate scenarios, respectively. Our findings highlight that areas currently suitable for wheat may face challenges in the future due to altered temperature and precipitation patterns, potentially leading to shifts in suitable areas or reduced productivity. This study also found that the suitability of land for wheat cultivation was determined by rainfall amount, temperature, soil type, soil pH, soil organic carbon content, soil nitrogen content, and elevation. This research underscores the critical importance of integrating spatiotemporal climate variability with future projections to comprehensively assess wheat suitability. By elucidating the implications of climate change on wheat cultivation, this study lays the groundwork for developing effective adaptation strategies and actionable recommendations to enhance management practices. The findings support the county’s commitment to refining agricultural land use strategies, increasing wheat production through suitability predictions, and advancing self-sufficiency in wheat production. Additionally, these insights can empower Ethiopia’s agricultural extension services to guide farmers in cultivating wheat in areas identified as highly and moderately suitable, thereby bolstering production in a changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sintayehu Alemayehu & Daniel Olago & Alfred Opere & Tadesse Terefe Zeleke & Sintayehu W. Dejene, 2024. "Evaluating Wheat Cultivation Potential in Ethiopia Under the Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:11:p:1915-:d:1521213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1915/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1915/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Ayalew Mekonnen & Nicolas Gerber, 2017. "Aspirations and food security in rural Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(2), pages 371-385, April.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Belay Kassie & Senthold Asseng & Reimund Rotter & Huib Hengsdijk & Alex Ruane & Martin Ittersum, 2015. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 145-158, March.
    4. Li, Baibing & Martin, Elaine B. & Morris, A. Julian, 2002. "On principal component analysis in L1," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 471-474, September.
    5. Antonio Alberto Rodríguez Sousa & Jesús M. Barandica & Pedro A. Aguilera & Alejandro J. Rescia, 2020. "Examining Potential Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Other Driving Forces on the Sustainability of Spanish Olive Groves under a Socio-Ecological Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    6. Gebreselassie, Samuel & Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2017. "The Wheat Sector in Ethiopia: Current Status and Key Challenges for Future Value Chain Development," Working Papers 261290, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sintayehu Alemayehu & Getachew Tegegne & Sintayehu W. Dejene & Lidya Tesfaye & Numery Abdulhamid & Evan Girvetz, 2025. "Harnessing Livestock Water and Pasture Monitoring and Early Warning Systems for Anticipatory Action to Strengthen Resilience of Pastoral Communities in Ethiopia: A Qualitative Multi-Stakeholder Analys," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Radosław Wolniak & Wiesław Wes Grebski, 2025. "Sustainable Trends and Determinants of Wheat Cultivation in Poland (2004–2023): A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Productivity, Resilience, and Climate Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-35, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    2. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    3. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    4. Plat, Richard, 2009. "Stochastic portfolio specific mortality and the quantification of mortality basis risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 123-132, August.
    5. Kondylis, Athanassios & Whittaker, Joe, 2008. "Spectral preconditioning of Krylov spaces: Combining PLS and PC regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 2588-2603, January.
    6. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    7. Ouyang, Yaofu & Li, Peng, 2018. "On the nexus of financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption in China: New perspective from a GMM panel VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 238-252.
    8. Adamou, Pr. Rabani & Ibrahim, Boubacar & Bonkaney, Abdou Latif & Seyni, Abdoul Aziz & Idrissa, Mamoudou, 2021. "Niger - Land, climate, energy, agriculture and development: A study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security," Working Papers 308806, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    9. Paschalis Arvanitidis & Athina Economou & Christos Kollias, 2016. "Terrorism’s effects on social capital in European countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 231-250, December.
    10. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Rahat, Birjees & Naqvi, Bushra & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "Revolutionizing finance: The synergy of fintech, digital adoption, and innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2024. "Historical Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Rice and Maize Yields in Southeast Asia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    13. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    14. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Weili Duan & Bin He & Daniel Nover & Guishan Yang & Wen Chen & Huifang Meng & Shan Zou & Chuanming Liu, 2016. "Water Quality Assessment and Pollution Source Identification of the Eastern Poyang Lake Basin Using Multivariate Statistical Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, January.
    16. Adele Ravagnani & Fabrizio Lillo & Paola Deriu & Piero Mazzarisi & Francesca Medda & Antonio Russo, 2024. "Dimensionality reduction techniques to support insider trading detection," Papers 2403.00707, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    17. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    18. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:11:p:1915-:d:1521213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.