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Spatial-Temporal Simulation of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use in Yangtze River Delta under SSP-RCP Scenarios

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  • Mengyao Li

    (Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China)

  • Hongxia Luo

    (Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China)

  • Zili Qin

    (Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China)

  • Yuanxin Tong

    (Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China)

Abstract

Land use change could affect the carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems, implying that future carbon storage could be estimated by simulating land use patterns, which is of great significance for the ecological environment. Therefore, the patterns of future land use and carbon storage under the combination scenarios of different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of the Yangtze River Delta were simulated by introducing weight matrices into the Markov model and combining the PLUS and InVEST models. The results revealed that the woodland expands greatly during 2020–2060 under the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario, and the carbon storage of 2060 is at a high level with an estimated value of 5069.31 × 10 6 t and an average annual increase of 19.13 × 10 6 t, indicating that the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario contributes to the improvement of carbon storage. However, the area of built-up land is increasing under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, and the estimated value of carbon storage is 3836.55 × 10 6 t, with an average annual decrease of 11.69 × 10 6 t, indicating that the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario negatively affects carbon sink. Besides, the SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario causes almost no effect on land use change and carbon storage. The above results can help policymakers manage land use patterns and choose the best development scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengyao Li & Hongxia Luo & Zili Qin & Yuanxin Tong, 2023. "Spatial-Temporal Simulation of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use in Yangtze River Delta under SSP-RCP Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:2:p:399-:d:1054701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Haoran Fan & Qi Si & Wenming Dong & Gang Lu & Xinping Liu, 2023. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Prediction in Urumqi under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Zhouling Shao & Chunyan Chen & Yuanli Liu & Jie Cao & Guitang Liao & Zhengyu Lin, 2023. "Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Ziyi Luo & Caihong Chen & Jiyun She & Yamin Wang & Wenfu Tong & Zexin Guo, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Analysis, Predictive Modeling, and Driving Mechanism Investigation of Carbon Storage Dynamics in Changde City Under the Framework of LUCC," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Jinyao Lin & Qitong Chen, 2023. "Analyzing and Simulating the Influence of a Water Conveyance Project on Land Use Conditions in the Tarim River Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, November.

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