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Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Prediction in Urumqi under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) Scenarios

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  • Haoran Fan

    (School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention, Urumqi 830052, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Qi Si

    (School of Public Management (Faculty of Law), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Wenming Dong

    (School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Gang Lu

    (Xinjiang Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Environment Monitoring Station, Urumqi 830099, China)

  • Xinping Liu

    (School of Public Management (Faculty of Law), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

Abstract

Understanding land use/cover change (LUCC) and landscape ecological risk change in the context of future climate warming can help adjust socio-economic development policies, optimize regional ecological security patterns, and promote green and low-carbon development on the one hand and provide important supplements and improvements for research in related fields on the other. Taking Urumqi as the study area, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-modal ensemble data, we used the coupled system dynamics (SD) model and patch-generation land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate land use change under three SSP-RCP scenarios in 2020–2060, and we predicted trends of landscape ecological risk change in this 40-year period by using the landscape ecological risk index (LERI). The results indicate that woodland and grassland significantly increase under the SSP126 scenario. Unused land is larger in the SSP245 scenario. The expansion trend of construction land toward cultivated land is most obvious in the SSP585 scenario; additionally, the area of water increases more distinctly in this scenario. The overall landscape ecological risk under the three SSP-RCP scenarios is reduced to different degrees; in particular, the risk level of urban built-up areas and nature reserves decreases remarkably, and the area of the highest risk zones of unused land is also gradually narrowed. By 2060, the average LERI under the SSP126 scenario is the lowest. The study findings can help relevant departments formulate reasonable urban development plans, which are of great theoretical and practical significance for guaranteeing regional ecological security.

Suggested Citation

  • Haoran Fan & Qi Si & Wenming Dong & Gang Lu & Xinping Liu, 2023. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Prediction in Urumqi under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:19:p:14214-:d:1247944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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