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Multi-Scenario Landscape Ecological Risk Simulation for Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study on the Central Mountainous Area of Hainan Island

Author

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  • Nianlong Han

    (School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)

  • Miao Yu

    (School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)

  • Peihong Jia

    (School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)

Abstract

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations are focused on regional development and ecological security. Based on these SDGs, quantitative regional landscape ecological risk assessment is significant to realize regional sustainable development. This study took the central mountainous area (CMA) of Hainan Island as the research area, and combined SDGs and a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to analyze multi-scenario land-use change and landscape ecological risk simulation. The study results show that the low ecological risk areas are located in the central hinterland of the CMA, and the high ecological risk areas are located on the northern and southern edges, with strong disturbances from human activities. The construction land in the CMA expanded drastically from 2010 to 2018, mainly invading forestland and grassland, leading to landscape fragmentation, which was the main cause of the increased ecological risk in the CMA landscape. The future multi-scenario simulations for SDGs show that under the scenario of natural development and economic development, the construction land and water area will significantly expand and the forest land will be dramatically reduced. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land will be restrained, and the area of forest land will increase. The results showed that the landscape ecological risks in the three simulated scenarios would be higher than in 2018, but the increase in the landscape ecological risks under the ecological protection scenario would be relatively slight. Forest land plays an essential role in maintaining the ecological security of the CMA. The expanding construction land in the CMA has led to landscape fragmentation and increased ecological risk. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the forest land in the CMA. In addition, construction and development should be limited in high-risk areas. Although the adoption of the ecological conservation scenario favors regional sustainability, it is still necessary to improve ecological protection policies such as ecological compensation to ensure the realization of other SDGs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nianlong Han & Miao Yu & Peihong Jia, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Landscape Ecological Risk Simulation for Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study on the Central Mountainous Area of Hainan Island," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:4030-:d:781866
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joyeeta Gupta & Courtney Vegelin, 2016. "Sustainable development goals and inclusive development," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 433-448, June.
    2. Ying Li & Suiliang Huang, 2015. "Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-22, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrew Rule & Sarah-Eve Dill & Gordy Sun & Aidan Chen & Senan Khawaja & Ingrid Li & Vincent Zhang & Scott Rozelle, 2022. "Challenges and Opportunities in Aligning Conservation with Development in China’s National Parks: A Narrative Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-24, October.
    3. Sebastjan Lazar & Vojko Potočan & Dorota Klimecka-Tatar & Matevz Obrecht, 2022. "Boosting Sustainable Operations with Sustainable Supply Chain Modeling: A Case of Organizational Culture and Normative Commitment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-23, September.
    4. Qiming Wang & Kun Yang & Lixiao Li & Yanhui Zhu, 2022. "Assessing the Terrain Gradient Effect of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Dianchi Lake Basin of China Using Geo-Information Tupu Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Haoran Fan & Qi Si & Wenming Dong & Gang Lu & Xinping Liu, 2023. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Prediction in Urumqi under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    7. Nan Wang & Peijuan Zhu & Guohua Zhou & Xudong Xing & Yong Zhang, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-29, November.

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