Multi-scenario simulation and carbon storage assessment of land use in a multi-mountainous city

Scientific prediction and assessment of land use types and their carbon storage potentials in urban areas under various future development scenarios hold significant practical importance for guiding urban territorial spatial planning and landscape regulation. This study, based on three phases of high-precision land use data in the central urban area of Guiyang City, utilizes the PLUS-InVEST model to simulate and evaluate the dynamics of land use and its carbon storage potential in a multi-mountainous city area under three future development scenarios. The results indicate that, between 2008 and 2018, the cultivated land and urban remnant mountainous (URMs) in the Guiyang build-up area decreased by 94.17 km2 and 13.32 km2, respectively. Concurrently, the area of artificial surfaces and green land increased by 77.2 km2 and 26.4 km2, respectively. Under the Ecological Conservation-Prioritized (EC) scenario, Guiyang City's land use pattern emphasizes the protection of natural green spaces and restricts the conversion of artificial surfaces to other land types. This scenario results in the highest carbon storage and sustains positive growth in the economic value of carbon sequestration. Conversely, under the Economic Development-Prioritized (ED) scenario, artificial surfaces continue to expand, leading to the lowest carbon storage and the most severe loss in the economic value of carbon sequestration. Notably, when constrained by red-line protection policies, the total carbon storage exhibits positive changes across all three simulation scenarios. These findings provide valuable reference and basis for future territorial spatial planning and landscape regulation aimed at sustainable development goals in multi-mountainous cities.