IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i5p4500-d1086137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Response and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage and Habitat Quality to Land Use in Liaoning Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Dong-Feng Ren

    (School of Geomatics, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Ai-Hua Cao

    (School of Geomatics, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Fei-Yue Wang

    (School of Geomatics, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China)

Abstract

Liaoning Province, as an old industrial urban agglomeration since the founding of China, is an important link between the Bohai Economic Zone and the Northeast Economic Zone, and it has made great contributions to the economic development of China. The transformation of China’s economy and heavy industrial development have posed great challenges to the long-lasting growth of Liaoning Province. In this study, the driving force of land expansion was detected using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in Liaoning Province, and the land situation in 2030 was predicted under natural development, ecological protection, and economic development scenarios. We then further coupled the PLUS model with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to explore the spatial autocorrelation and synergistic relationship between carbon storage and habitat quality. The results indicated the following: (1) The total accuracy of the simulation in 2020 using the PLUS model reached 94.16%, and the Kappa coefficient reached 0.9089; therefore, the simulation result was highly reliable. (2) The overall spatial pattern of both carbon storage and habitat quality decreased from the northwest and southeast to the middle, and habitat quality had an impact on carbon storage to a certain extent, with a positive spatial correlation. (3) The ecological protection (EP) scenario was the only development prospect with increasing total carbon storage, which could increase carbon sequestration by approximately 7.83 × 10 6 Mg/C, and development prospects with optimal habitat quality. (4) Weak trade-off and weak synergy dominated in the 2030 natural development (ND) scenario; most regions showed weak synergy in the ecological protection scenario, spatial heterogeneity became more pronounced in the economic development (ED) scenario, and a strong trade-off and strong synergy emerged in individual regions. The results of the study have a positive feedback effect on establishing an ecological security barrier in Liaoning Province and furthering long-lasting low-carbon urban development.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong-Feng Ren & Ai-Hua Cao & Fei-Yue Wang, 2023. "Response and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage and Habitat Quality to Land Use in Liaoning Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:5:p:4500-:d:1086137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/5/4500/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/5/4500/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Hadi Saputra & Han Soo Lee, 2019. "Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, Using an Artificial-Neural-Network-Based Cellular Automaton," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Xinmin Zhang & Hualin Xie & Jiaying Shi & Tiangui Lv & Caihua Zhou & Wangda Liu, 2020. "Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in Response to Land Cover Dynamics in Jiangxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Wainger, Lisa A. & King, Dennis M. & Mack, Richard N. & Price, Elizabeth W. & Maslin, Thomas, 2010. "Can the concept of ecosystem services be practically applied to improve natural resource management decisions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 978-987, March.
    4. Luc Anselin, 2012. "From SpaceStat to CyberGIS," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 35(2), pages 131-157, April.
    5. Xinqing Wang & Tao Pan & Ruoyi Pan & Wenfeng Chi & Chen Ma & Letian Ning & Xiaoyu Wang & Jiacheng Zhang, 2022. "Impact of Land Transition on Landscape and Ecosystem Service Value in Northeast Region of China from 2000–2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Johnson, Gary W. & Voigt, Brian & Villa, Ferdinando, 2013. "Spatial dynamics of ecosystem service flows: A comprehensive approach to quantifying actual services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 117-125.
    7. Yingxue Li & Zhaoshun Liu & Shujie Li & Xiang Li, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in Changchun City Based on FLUS and InVEST Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, April.
    8. Lyu, Rongfang & Zhang, Jianming & Xu, Mengqun & Li, Jijun, 2018. "Impacts of urbanization on ecosystem services and their temporal relations: A case study in Northern Ningxia, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 163-173.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Suiping Zeng & Xinyao Liu & Jian Tian & Jian Zeng, 2024. "Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Yanzhen Lin & Lei Chen & Ying Ma & Tingting Yang, 2024. "Analysis and Simulation of Land Use Changes and Their Impact on Carbon Stocks in the Haihe River Basin by Combining LSTM with the InVEST Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Yingchu Guo & Dawei Xu & Jia Xu & Ziyi Yang, 2024. "Multi-Scale Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Health in the Harbin–Changchun Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-31, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Binglu Wu & Wenzhuo Liang & Jiening Wang & Dongxu Cui, 2022. "Rural Residents’ Perceptions of Ecosystem Services: A Study from Three Topographic Areas in Shandong Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Vrebos, Dirk & Staes, Jan & Vandenbroucke, Tom & D׳Haeyer, Tom & Johnston, Robyn & Muhumuza, Moses & Kasabeke, Clovis & Meire, Patrick, 2015. "Mapping ecosystem service flows with land cover scoring maps for data-scarce regions," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 28-40.
    3. Zhang, Pengyan & Yang, Dan & Qin, Mingzhou & Jing, Wenlong, 2020. "Spatial heterogeneity analysis and driving forces exploring of built-up land development intensity in Chinese prefecture-level cities and implications for future Urban Land intensive use," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Srijana Shrestha & Khem Narayan Poudyal & Nawraj Bhattarai & Mohan B. Dangi & John J. Boland, 2022. "An Assessment of the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on the Degradation of Ecosystem Service Values in Kathmandu Valley Using Remote Sensing and GIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Yang Zou & Dehua Mao, 2022. "Simulation of Freshwater Ecosystem Service Flows under Land-Use Change: A Case Study of Lianshui River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.
    6. González-García, Alberto & Palomo, Ignacio & González, José A. & López, César A. & Montes, Carlos, 2020. "Quantifying spatial supply-demand mismatches in ecosystem services provides insights for land-use planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Zhao, Ziyang & Wang, Hongrui & Wang, Cheng & Li, Wangcheng & Chen, Hao & Deng, Caiyun, 2020. "Changes in reference evapotranspiration over Northwest China from 1957 to 2018: Variation characteristics, cause analysis and relationships with atmospheric circulation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Min Gon Chung & Tao Pan & Xintong Zou & Jianguo Liu, 2018. "Complex Interrelationships between Ecosystem Services Supply and Tourism Demand: General Framework and Evidence from the Origin of Three Asian Rivers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Wu, Ye & Tao, Yu & Yang, Guishan & Ou, Weixin & Pueppke, Steven & Sun, Xiao & Chen, Gongtai & Tao, Qin, 2019. "Impact of land use change on multiple ecosystem services in the rapidly urbanizing Kunshan City of China: Past trajectories and future projections," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 419-427.
    10. Carmen Schwartz & Mostafa Shaaban & Sonoko Dorothea Bellingrath-Kimura & Annette Piorr, 2021. "Participatory Mapping of Demand for Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, November.
    11. Milad Asadi & Amir Oshnooei-Nooshabadi & Samira-Sadat Saleh & Fattaneh Habibnezhad & Sonia Sarafraz-Asbagh & John Lodewijk Van Genderen, 2022. "Urban Sprawl Simulation Mapping of Urmia (Iran) by Comparison of Cellular Automata–Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Changchang Liu & Chuxiong Deng & Zhongwu Li & Yaojun Liu & Shuyuan Wang, 2022. "Optimization of Spatial Pattern of Land Use: Progress, Frontiers, and Prospects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-22, May.
    13. Stephen C. L. Watson & Adrian C. Newton, 2018. "Dependency of Businesses on Flows of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study from the County of Dorset, UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, April.
    14. Warnell, Katherine J.D. & Russell, Marc & Rhodes, Charles & Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Olander, Lydia P. & Nowak, David J. & Poudel, Rajendra & Glynn, Pierre D. & Hass, Julie L. & Hirabayashi, Satoshi & In, 2020. "Testing ecosystem accounting in the United States: A case study for the Southeast," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    15. Yang Yi & Chen Zhang & Jinqi Zhu & Yugang Zhang & Hao Sun & Hongzhang Kang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Prediction and Optimization of LUCC Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models: A Case Study of Mentougou District, Beijing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-23, February.
    16. Shiliang Liu & Yuhong Dong & Hua Liu & Fangfang Wang & Lu Yu, 2023. "Review of Valuation of Forest Ecosystem Services and Realization Approaches in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, May.
    17. Zheng Zang, 2021. "Conceptual Model of Ecosystem Service Flows from Carbon Dioxide to Blue Carbon in Coastal Wetlands: An Empirical Study Based on Yancheng, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-12, April.
    18. Kevin Thellmann & Marc Cotter & Sabine Baumgartner & Anna Treydte & Georg Cadisch & Folkard Asch, 2018. "Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    19. Lorilla, Roxanne Suzette & Poirazidis, Konstantinos & Detsis, Vassilis & Kalogirou, Stamatis & Chalkias, Christos, 2020. "Socio-ecological determinants of multiple ecosystem services on the Mediterranean landscapes of the Ionian Islands (Greece)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 422(C).
    20. Rasmussen, Laura Vang & Mertz, Ole & Christensen, Andreas E. & Danielsen, Finn & Dawson, Neil & Xaydongvanh, Pheang, 2016. "A combination of methods needed to assess the actual use of provisioning ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 75-86.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:5:p:4500-:d:1086137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.