Forecasting of factors influencing carbon emission from land-use in Liaoning Province, China, under the “double carbon” target

In the context of global warming, research on the association between land cover change and carbon emissions can offer a theoretical foundation for resource management and decision-making regarding green, low-carbon, and sustainable development. In this study, we computed carbon emissions from land-use (CELU) in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020 and categorized the carbon emission risk levels. Subsequently, we used the logarithmic mean divisia index model to identify the carbon emission drivers in each city. Finally, we used the PLUS and grey prediction models to forecast carbon emissions in 2030 under different scenarios. The total carbon emissions in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020 increased, with construction land being the main determinant; the spatial distribution and risk of CELU were characterized by a “double core” pattern. The degree of social development and scale of construction land had a positive impact on the increase in net carbon emissions. In contrast, carbon emission intensity and land-use efficiency had a negative, inhibitory effect. Of the calculations of carbon emissions from different scenarios, the economic development scenario has the highest total carbon emission of 327,642,300 tons. In the future, attention should be focused on adjusting the industrial layout and optimizing the land-use structure to attain a balanced, regional carbon equilibrium and green development.