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Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

Author

Listed:
  • Suiping Zeng

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China)

  • Xinyao Liu

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China)

  • Jian Tian

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Jian Zeng

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

Abstract

The spatial–temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of carbon stock under the influence of land use changes are crucial to the scientific management of environmental resources and the optimization of land spatial layout. Taking the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou urban agglomeration in the southeastern coastal region of China as an example, based on seven land use types from 1990 to 2020, including cultivated land, woodland, and construction land, we quantitatively investigate the spatial–temporal patterns of carbon stock development and the spatial correlation of carbon stock distribution. Additionally, two scenarios for the development of urban and ecological priorities in 2060 are established to investigate the effects of land use changes on carbon stock. The results indicate that (1) the research area has formed a land use spatial pattern centered around urban construction in the eastern bay area, with the western forest area and coastal forest belt serving as ecological barriers. Carbon stock is influenced by land use type, and the distribution of total carbon stock exhibits a spatial aggregation phenomenon characterized by “low in the southeast, high in the north, and medium in the center”. (2) Distance of trunk and secondary roads, elevation, slope, watershed borders, population size, and gross domestic product (GDP) factors are the main drivers of the growth of land use types. The primary causes of the reduction in carbon stock are the widespread conversion of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland into construction land, as well as water and unused land. (3) In 2060, there will be a decrease of 41,712,443.35 Mg in the urban priority development scenario compared to 2020, and a decrease of 29,577,580.48 Mg in the ecological priority development scenario. The estimated carbon stock under the two scenarios varies by 12,134,862.88 Mg. The average carbon storage of Zhangpu County, Quangang County, and Jimei County is expected to rise by one level under the ecological protection scenario, indicating that the vast forest area can become a potential area to maintain carbon stock. It is crucial to encourage the coordinated development of peri-urban agroforestry and ecological barriers, as well as to establish a harmonious spatial pattern of land use and carbon stock at the scale of urban agglomerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Suiping Zeng & Xinyao Liu & Jian Tian & Jian Zeng, 2024. "Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:4:p:476-:d:1371485
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dong-Feng Ren & Ai-Hua Cao & Fei-Yue Wang, 2023. "Response and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage and Habitat Quality to Land Use in Liaoning Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Guo Cai & Yuying Lin & Fazi Zhang & Shihe Zhang & Linsheng Wen & Baoyin Li, 2022. "Response of Ecosystem Service Value to Landscape Pattern Changes under Low-Carbon Scenario: A Case Study of Fujian Coastal Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Xu, Jinghang & Guan, Yuru & Oldfield, Jonathan & Guan, Dabo & Shan, Yuli, 2024. "China carbon emission accounts 2020-2021," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    4. Min Li & Peng Zheng & Wenbin Pan, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Variation and Tradeoffs/Synergies Analysis on Multiple Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in Fujian," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, March.
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    2. Hong Shi & Ji Yang & Qijuan Liu & Taohong Li & Ning Chris Chen, 2024. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Fraction Vegetation Coverage Based on PLUS-Dimidiate Pixel Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-18, November.

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