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Forecasting Urban Land Use Change Based on Cellular Automata and the PLUS Model

Author

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  • Linfeng Xu

    (School of Life Science, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing 312000, China)

  • Xuan Liu

    (School of Public Affairs and Administration, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China)

  • De Tong

    (Laboratory for Urban Future, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Zhixin Liu

    (School of Life Science, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing 312000, China)

  • Lirong Yin

    (Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Wenfeng Zheng

    (School of Automation, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China)

Abstract

Nowadays, cities meet numerous sustainable development challenges in facing growing urban populations and expanding urban areas. The monitoring and simulation of land use and land-cover change have become essential tools for understanding and managing urbanization. This paper interprets and predicts the expansion of seven different land use types in the study area, using the PLUS model, which combines the Land use Expansion Analysis Strategy (LEAS) and the CA model, based on the multi-class random patch seed (CARS) model. By choosing a variety of driving factors, the PLUS model simulates urban expansion in the metropolitan area of Hangzhou. The accuracy of the simulation, manifested as the kappa coefficient of urban land, increased to more than 84%, and the kappa coefficient of other land use types was more than 90%. To a certain extent, the PLUS model used in this study solves the CA model’s deficiencies in conversion rule mining strategy and landscape dynamic change simulation strategy. The results show that various types of land use changes obtained using this method have a high degree of accuracy and can be used to simulate urban expansion, especially over short periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Linfeng Xu & Xuan Liu & De Tong & Zhixin Liu & Lirong Yin & Wenfeng Zheng, 2022. "Forecasting Urban Land Use Change Based on Cellular Automata and the PLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:5:p:652-:d:804722
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    References listed on IDEAS

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