IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i19p10805-d645780.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Urban Expansion Simulation Based on Various Driving Factors Using a Logistic Regression Model: Delhi as a Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Salem

    (Faculty of Urban and Regional Planning, Cairo University, Giza 12613, Egypt
    Faculty of Human-Environment Studies, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan)

  • Arghadeep Bose

    (Department of Geography & Applied Geography, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur 734013, West Bengal, India)

  • Bashar Bashir

    (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia)

  • Debanjan Basak

    (Department of Geography & Applied Geography, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur 734013, West Bengal, India)

  • Subham Roy

    (Department of Geography & Applied Geography, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur 734013, West Bengal, India)

  • Indrajit R. Chowdhury

    (Department of Geography & Applied Geography, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur 734013, West Bengal, India)

  • Abdullah Alsalman

    (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia)

  • Naoki Tsurusaki

    (Faculty of Human-Environment Studies, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan)

Abstract

During the last three decades, Delhi has witnessed extensive and rapid urban expansion in all directions, especially in the East South East zone. The total built-up area has risen dramatically, from 195.3 sq. km to 435.1 sq. km, during 1989–2020, which has led to habitat fragmentation, deforestation, and difficulties in running urban utility services effectively in the new extensions. This research aimed to simulate urban expansion in Delhi based on various driving factors using a logistic regression model. The recent urban expansion of Delhi was mapped using LANDSAT images of 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The urban expansion was analyzed using concentric rings to show the urban expansion intensity in each direction. Nine driving factors were analyzed to detect the influence of each factor on the urban expansion process. The results revealed that the proximity to urban areas, proximity to main roads, and proximity to medical facilities were the most significant factors in Delhi during 1989–2020, where they had the highest regression coefficients: −0.884, −0.475, and −0.377, respectively. In addition, the predicted pattern of urban expansion was chaotic, scattered, and dense on the peripheries. This pattern of urban expansion might lead to further losses of natural resources. The relative operating characteristic method was utilized to assess the accuracy of the simulation, and the resulting value of 0.96 proved the validity of the simulation. The results of this research will aid local authorities in recognizing the patterns of future expansion, thus facilitating the implementation of effective policies to achieve sustainable urban development in Delhi.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Salem & Arghadeep Bose & Bashar Bashir & Debanjan Basak & Subham Roy & Indrajit R. Chowdhury & Abdullah Alsalman & Naoki Tsurusaki, 2021. "Urban Expansion Simulation Based on Various Driving Factors Using a Logistic Regression Model: Delhi as a Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:19:p:10805-:d:645780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/19/10805/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/19/10805/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bolormaa Batsuuri & Christine Fürst & Buyandelger Myagmarsuren, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Urban Planning Concepts on Reducing the Urban Sprawl of Ulaanbaatar City Using Certain Spatial Indicators," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Karlheinz Knickel & Alexandra Almeida & Lisa Bauchinger & Maria Pia Casini & Bernd Gassler & Kerstin Hausegger-Nestelberger & Jesse Heley & Reinhard Henke & Marina Knickel & Henk Oostindie & Ulla Ovas, 2021. "Towards More Balanced Territorial Relations—The Role (and Limitations) of Spatial Planning as a Governance Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Kaifang Shi & Yun Chen & Bailang Yu & Tingbao Xu & Linyi Li & Chang Huang & Rui Liu & Zuoqi Chen & Jianping Wu, 2016. "Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Loss in China: A Multiscale Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Fernando Rubiera-Morollón & Ruben Garrido-Yserte, 2020. "Recent Literature about Urban Sprawl: A Renewed Relevance of the Phenomenon from the Perspective of Environmental Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Nangware Kajia Msofe & Lianxi Sheng & James Lyimo, 2019. "Land Use Change Trends and Their Driving Forces in the Kilombero Valley Floodplain, Southeastern Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-25, January.
    6. Melika Mehriar & Houshmand Masoumi & Inmaculada Mohino, 2020. "Urban Sprawl, Socioeconomic Features, and Travel Patterns in Middle East Countries: A Case Study in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-20, November.
    7. Salem, Muhammad & Tsurusaki, Naoki & Divigalpitiya, Prasanna, 2020. "Remote sensing-based detection of agricultural land losses around Greater Cairo since the Egyptian revolution of 2011," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bao Meng & Xuxi Wang & Zhifeng Zhang & Pei Huang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Driving Force Evolution of Cultivated Land Occupied by Urban Expansion in the Chengdu Metropolitan Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Berihu Asgele Siyum, 2023. "Practice and challenge of urban land governance: an empirical study in Tigrai, East Africa," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(2), pages 631-650, June.
    3. Lin Meng & Wentao Si, 2022. "The Driving Mechanism of Urban Land Expansion from 2005 to 2018: The Case of Yangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Yufan Chen & Yong He, 2022. "Urban Land Expansion Dynamics and Drivers in Peri-Urban Areas of China: A Case of Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou Metropolis (1985–2020)," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Linfeng Xu & Xuan Liu & De Tong & Zhixin Liu & Lirong Yin & Wenfeng Zheng, 2022. "Forecasting Urban Land Use Change Based on Cellular Automata and the PLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Ning Wang & Zhigang Chen & Tianshu Li & Mengjia Zhen, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Influence Mechanism of Urban Vertical Expansion: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Oznur Isinkaralar & Kaan Isinkaralar & Dilara Yilmaz, 2023. "Climate-related spatial reduction risk of agricultural lands on the Mediterranean coast in Türkiye and scenario-based modelling of urban growth," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13199-13217, November.
    8. Jiaying Zhang & Yi Chen & Xuhong Yang & Wenyi Qiao & Danyang Wang, 2022. "The Demarcation of Urban Development Boundary Based on the Maxent-CA Model: A Case Study of Wuxi in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-21, September.
    9. Margherita Carlucci & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Agglomeration vs amenities? Unraveling the latent engine of growth in metropolitan Greece," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(9), pages 2491-2509, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marwan Omar Hassan & Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling & Noradila Rusli & Safizahanin Mokhtar & Walton Wider & Pau Chung Leng, 2023. "Urban Sprawl Patterns, Drivers, and Impacts: The Case of Mogadishu, Somalia Using Geo-Spatial and SEM Analyses," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Houshmand Masoumi, 2021. "Residential Location Choice in Istanbul, Tehran, and Cairo: The Importance of Commuting to Work," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Anna Zaręba & Alicja Krzemińska & Renata Kozik, 2021. "Urban Vertical Farming as an Example of Nature-Based Solutions Supporting a Healthy Society Living in the Urban Environment," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Dong Chen & Rongrong Liu & Maoxian Zhou, 2023. "Delineation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Weiyuan County in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Deng, Taotao & Wang, Dandan & Hu, Yukun & Liu, Shuang, 2020. "Did high-speed railway cause urban space expansion? ——Empirical evidence from China's prefecture-level cities," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Yuqing An & Jin Yeu Tsou & Kapo Wong & Yuanzhi Zhang & Dawei Liu & Yu Li, 2018. "Detecting Land Use Changes in a Rapidly Developing City during 1990–2017 Using Satellite Imagery: A Case Study in Hangzhou Urban Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    7. Milad Asadi & Amir Oshnooei-Nooshabadi & Samira-Sadat Saleh & Fattaneh Habibnezhad & Sonia Sarafraz-Asbagh & John Lodewijk Van Genderen, 2022. "Urban Sprawl Simulation Mapping of Urmia (Iran) by Comparison of Cellular Automata–Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Peta Brom & Kristine Engemann & Christina Breed & Maya Pasgaard & Titilope Onaolapo & Jens-Christian Svenning, 2023. "A Decision Support Tool for Green Infrastructure Planning in the Face of Rapid Urbanization," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Jiao Zhang & Qian Wang & Yiping Xia & Katsunori Furuya, 2022. "Knowledge Map of Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development: A Visual Analysis Using CiteSpace," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, February.
    10. Jiangsu Li & Weihua Li & Bo Li & Liangrong Duan & Tianjiao Zhang & Qi Jia, 2022. "Construction Land Expansion of Resource-Based Cities in China: Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-20, December.
    11. Fayaz Ahmad Lone & M. Imran Ganaie & Showkat A. Ganaie & M. Shafi Bhat & Javeed Ahmad Rather, 2023. "Drivers of agricultural land-use change in Kashmir valley - an application of mixed method approach," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Omar Hamdy & Hanan Gaber & Mohamed S. Abdalzaher & Mahmoud Elhadidy, 2022. "Identifying Exposure of Urban Area to Certain Seismic Hazard Using Machine Learning and GIS: A Case Study of Greater Cairo," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-24, August.
    13. Chidozie Charles Nnaji & Nkpa Mba Ogarekpe & Ekene Jude Nwankwo, 2022. "Temporal and spatial dynamics of land use and land cover changes in derived savannah hydrological basin of Enugu State, Nigeria," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(7), pages 9598-9622, July.
    14. Yuanyuan Teng, 2022. "Economic and Spatial Integration of Land-Lost Households in Inland China: Evidence from a Survey in Nanchang City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, December.
    15. Afia Malik & Idrees Khawaja, 2021. "Urban Resilience and its Impact on Electricity Provision in Karachi, Islamabad and Peshawar," PIDE Monograph Series 2021:1, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    16. Julien Bwazani Balandi & Jean Pierre Pitchou Meniko To Hulu & Kouagou Raoul Sambieni & Yannick Useni Sikuzani & Jean-François Bastin & Charles Mumbere Musavandalo & Timothée Besisa Nguba & Jacques Ela, 2023. "Urban Sprawl and Changes in Landscape Patterns: The Case of Kisangani City and Its Periphery (DR Congo)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-14, November.
    17. Neema Simon Sumari & Gang Xu & Fanan Ujoh & Prosper Issahaku Korah & Obas John Ebohon & Neema Nicodemus Lyimo, 2019. "A Geospatial Approach to Sustainable Urban Planning: Lessons for Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-14, November.
    18. Britta Höllermann & Kristian Näschen & Naswiru Tibanyendela & Julius Kwesiga & Mariele Evers, 2021. "Dynamics of Human–Water Interactions in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania: Insights from Farmers’ Aspirations and Decisions in an Uncertain Environment," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(4), pages 980-999, August.
    19. Diego Sales & Victor Matsudo & Mauro Fisberg & Clemens Drenowatz & Adilson Marques & Gerson Ferrari, 2022. "Perception of the Neighborhood Environment, Physical Activity by Domain and Sitting Time in Brazilian Adults," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-14, November.
    20. Giulio Giovannoni, 2021. "Urban Containment Planning: Is It Effective? The Case of Portland, OR," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:19:p:10805-:d:645780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.