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Climate-related spatial reduction risk of agricultural lands on the Mediterranean coast in Türkiye and scenario-based modelling of urban growth

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  • Oznur Isinkaralar

    (Kastamonu University)

  • Kaan Isinkaralar

    (Kastamonu University)

  • Dilara Yilmaz

    (Kastamonu University)

Abstract

The effects of urbanization and climate crisis due to warming and severe climate events are the primary critical developments that threaten agricultural production activities worldwide. The annual average surface temperature in Türkiye increased by 1.07 °C between 2010 and 2019, and it reached 1.4 °C in 2021. It is predicted that the temperatures will continue to grow in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean Region, where the annual average temperature is 18–20 °C. In countries with high climate risks, the sustainability of agricultural activities is a priority research topic in many respects, especially food safety. In this context, the spatiotemporal change in agricultural areas in cities located on the Mediterranean coast, one of the country’s warmest regions, is estimated for 2040 via the Cellular Automata-Markov chain method. As a result of the simulation made in the IDRISI Selva program, two different estimations were made: the trend model reflecting the current trend model (MT) and the sustainable agricultural model (MAS), where agricultural areas are limited. In the MT, the existing residential area will increase by 68.9% in 2040 and 208.1% in 2076. In the MAS, it will be limited to an increase of 60.8% in 2040 and 194.5% in 2076.

Suggested Citation

  • Oznur Isinkaralar & Kaan Isinkaralar & Dilara Yilmaz, 2023. "Climate-related spatial reduction risk of agricultural lands on the Mediterranean coast in Türkiye and scenario-based modelling of urban growth," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13199-13217, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03774-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03774-0
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