The multidimensional lens of urban sprawl: Spatiotemporal dynamics and governance in Abuja, Nigeria

Urban sprawl remains a pressing challenge for sustainable development worldwide, particularly in rapidly growing cities of the Global South. In many such contexts, sprawl is largely driven by resource-poor populations and informal sector dynamics, yet planning responses often exclude these stakeholders by relying on top-down, technical approaches. This study employs an integrated mixed-method design, combining multi-temporal geospatial analysis of land use/land cover (1991–2021), household surveys across 600 peri-urban households, and logistic regression modeling to capture demographic, socioeconomic, spatial, and perceptual determinants of urban expansion in Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) Abuja, Nigeria. The results indicate rapid land use/land cover transformation in AMAC over the past 30 years. Settlement areas grew from 18.5 km² (1.2 %) in 1991–333.6 km² (21.1 %) in 2021, with the sharpest expansion between 2001 and 2011, when urban land more than doubled (4.2 % to 10.9 %), followed by a further 109.8 % increase between 2011 and 2021. Bare surfaces also expanded significantly, from 123.6 km² (7.8 %) in 1991–396.3 km² (25.1 %) in 2021, with the steepest rise - a 100 % increase - occurring between 2001 and 2011. These trends underscore accelerating urbanization and the growing pressure for residential and commercial infrastructure. Logistic regression further reveals that proximity to schools, markets, transport hubs, and employment centers, together with household characteristics such as age, marital status, and employment, significantly predict settlement expansion. Survey evidence highlights that residents perceive weak regulatory enforcement, land speculation, and poor access to affordable housing as additional drivers of sprawl. Importantly, convergence between empirical evidence and stakeholder perceptions underscores the global relevance of participatory, context-sensitive planning frameworks. The study concludes that integrating geospatial evidence with local stakeholder insights offers a more inclusive pathway to managing sprawl and advancing resilient, equitable urban development in rapidly urbanizing regions. It underscores the need to move from top-down, technical models toward more inclusive, context-sensitive, and participatory planning for resilient and equitable urban development.