IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i7p3072-d1624500.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increase or Decrease? The Impact of Land Development Rights Transfer on Regional Carbon Emission Governance

Author

Listed:
  • Mengmeng Zhang

    (School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Yi Tang

    (School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Junzhu Liu

    (School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

  • Zhoupeng Chen

    (School of Politics and Public Administration, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning 530008, China)

  • Qing Kang

    (School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China)

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are a central issue in the conflict between economic development and environmental protection. Optimizing land use to balance development and conservation plays a crucial role in reducing carbon emissions. The transfer of development rights (TDR), as an emerging market-based policy tool, can effectively achieve a “win-win” situation between development and conservation. However, its empirical impact on carbon emission reduction remains insufficiently explored. This study focuses on the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China. It constructs four scenarios—nature, development, protection, and TDR—using the PLUS model. These scenarios are combined with 2030 projections of energy consumption and socio-economic development generated by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and evaluated using the carbon emission factor method. The results indicate that both urban–rural and cross-regional transfers of construction land rights positively contribute to reducing carbon emissions, and their combination yields the most significant benefits. The TDR scenario can protect the ecological environment while effectively controlling the scale of construction space. With a carbon emission level of 77.9 million tonnes, it serves as a rational choice for regional land use. This study contributes to advancing both the theory and practice of low-carbon land use and plays a significant role in optimizing land resource allocation and reducing carbon emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengmeng Zhang & Yi Tang & Junzhu Liu & Zhoupeng Chen & Qing Kang, 2025. "Increase or Decrease? The Impact of Land Development Rights Transfer on Regional Carbon Emission Governance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:7:p:3072-:d:1624500
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/7/3072/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/7/3072/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Chun & Yu, Li & Choguill, Charles L., 2020. "“Dipiao”, Chinese approach to transfer of land development rights: The experiences of Chongqing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Men, Dan & Pan, Jinghu, 2023. "Ecological network identification and connectivity robustness evaluation in the Yellow River Basin under a multi-scenario simulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    3. Li, Long & Huang, Xianjin & Yang, Hong, 2023. "Optimizing land use patterns to improve the contribution of land use planning to carbon neutrality target," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Qingxiang Meng & Yanna Zheng & Qi Liu & Baolu Li & Hejie Wei, 2023. "Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Nine Provinces of the Yellow River Basin Based on the LMDI Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    6. Wang, Bo & Li, Fan & Feng, Shuyi & Shen, Tong, 2020. "Transfer of development rights, farmland preservation, and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Liu, Zhi-Feng & Huang, Ya-He & Zhang, Shu-Rui & Luo, Xing-Fu & Chen, Xiao-Rui & Lin, Jun-Jie & Tang, Yu & Guo, Liang & Li, Ji-Xiang, 2025. "A collaborative interaction gate-based deep learning model with optimal bandwidth adjustment strategies for lithium-ion battery capacity point-interval forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PD).
    8. Wang, Meng & Wang, Wei & Wu, Lifeng, 2022. "Application of a new grey multivariate forecasting model in the forecasting of energy consumption in 7 regions of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Wang, Han & Lu, Siying & Lu, Bo & Nie, Xin, 2021. "Overt and covert: The relationship between the transfer of land development rights and carbon emissions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Timothy D. Searchinger & Stefan Wirsenius & Tim Beringer & Patrice Dumas, 2018. "Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7735), pages 249-253, December.
    11. Nie, Xin & Li, Xiaojuan & Lyu, Chengyu & Su, Yanglan & Wang, Han, 2024. "Can ecological compensation based on the transfer of development rights (TDR) improve ecosystem service value? A multi-scenario simulation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Rong Tan & Volker Beckmann & Futian Qu & Cifang Wu, 2012. "Governing Farmland Conversion for Urban Development from the Perspective of Transaction Cost Economics," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(10), pages 2265-2283, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Han & Lu, Siying & Lu, Bo & Nie, Xin, 2021. "Overt and covert: The relationship between the transfer of land development rights and carbon emissions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Jiali He & Xiangfei Liu & Xuetong Wang & Xueyang Li & Linger Yu & Beibei Niu, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Territorial Spaces and Its Effect on Carbon Emissions in Qingdao City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Tengfei Zhao & Jianlin Zhu & Zhiyu Jian & Xian Zhou & Puwei Zhang, 2024. "Effects of the “Urban Double Repairs” Policy on Urban Land-Use Carbon Emission Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-24, November.
    4. Song, Xiang & Wang, Dingyu & Zhang, Xuantao & He, Yuan & Wang, Yong, 2022. "A comparison of the operation of China's carbon trading market and energy market and their spillover effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Ren Yang & Yuancheng Lin, 2022. "Rural spatial transformation and governance from the perspective of land development rights: A case study of Fenghe village in Guangzhou," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 1102-1121, September.
    6. Weiguo Fan & Wei Yao & Kehan Chen, 2023. "Integrating Energy Systems Language and Emergy Approach to Simulate and Analyze the Energy Flow Process of Land Transfer," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Zhaojun Liu & Xinying Li, 2025. "Ensuring Housing Security Through Farmer Apartments: A Social–Ecological System Framework Analysis of Operational Mechanisms in L Village," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-27, April.
    8. Amponsah, Owusu & Blija, Daniel Kwame & Ayambire, Raphael Anammasiya & Takyi, Stephen Appiah & Mensah, Henry & Braimah, Imoro, 2022. "Global urban sprawl containment strategies and their implications for rapidly urbanising cities in Ghana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Yu Wang & Li Tian & Ziyi Wang & Chenyue Wang & Yuan Gao, 2023. "Effects of Transfer of Land Development Rights on Urban–Rural Integration: Theoretical Framework and Evidence from Chongqing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Long Cheng & Zhengchun Xu & Jintao Li, 2022. "Promote or Demote? Investigating the Impacts of China’s Transferable Development Rights Program on Farmers’ Income: A Case Study from Chongqing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-20, October.
    11. Nie, Xin & Li, Xiaojuan & Lyu, Chengyu & Su, Yanglan & Wang, Han, 2024. "Can ecological compensation based on the transfer of development rights (TDR) improve ecosystem service value? A multi-scenario simulation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Yijue Sun & Fenglin Zhang, 2022. "Grey Multivariable Prediction Model of Energy Consumption with Different Fractional Orders," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Tian Tian & Meizhu Hao & Zhanlu Zhang & Duan Ran, 2024. "Urbanization in Dynamics: The Influence of Land Quota Trading on Land and Population Urbanization," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, January.
    14. Zhaoxue Gai & Ying Xu & Guoming Du, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Differentiation and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land-Use Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Suria Tarigan & Iput Pradiko & Nuzul H. Darlan & Yudha Kristanto, 2025. "Carbon Footprint Comparison of Rapeseed and Palm Oil: Impact of Land Use and Fertilizers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-13, February.
    16. Huang, Yong & Elahi, Ehsan & You, Jiansheng & Sheng, Yuhua & Li, Jinwei & Meng, Anchan, 2024. "Land use policy implications of demographic shifts: Analyzing the impact of aging rural populations on agricultural carbon emissions in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Xu He & Qin-Lei Jing, 2022. "The Impact of Environmental Tax Reform on Total Factor Productivity of Heavy-Polluting Firms Based on a Dual Perspective of Technological Innovation and Capital Allocation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Henrik B. Møller & Peter Sørensen & Jørgen E. Olesen & Søren O. Petersen & Tavs Nyord & Sven G. Sommer, 2022. "Agricultural Biogas Production—Climate and Environmental Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, February.
    19. Zhou, Jianguo & Xu, Zhongtian, 2023. "Optimal sizing design and integrated cost-benefit assessment of stand-alone microgrid system with different energy storage employing chameleon swarm algorithm: A rural case in Northeast China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1110-1137.
    20. Li, Jintao & Dong, Haoran & Li, Shaoxing, 2024. "Economic development and optimal allocation of land use in ecological emigration area in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:7:p:3072-:d:1624500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.