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State Prices and Implementation of the Recovery Theorem

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  • Alex Backwell

    (Department of Actuarial Science and the African Collaboration for Quantitative Finance and Risk Research, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Cape Town 7700, South Africa)

Abstract

It is generally held that derivative prices do not contain useful predictive information, that is, information relating to the distribution of future financial variables under the real-world measure. This is because the market’s implicit forecast of the future becomes entangled with market risk preferences during derivative price formation. A result derived by Ross [1], however, recovers the real-world distribution of an equity index, requiring only current prices and mild restrictions on risk preferences. In addition to being of great interest to the theorist, the potential practical value of the result is considerable. This paper addresses implementation of the Ross Recovery Theorem. The theorem is formalised, extended, proved and discussed. Obstacles to application are identified and a workable implementation methodology is developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Backwell, 2015. "State Prices and Implementation of the Recovery Theorem," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:2-16:d:44897
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    2. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    3. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Audrino, Francesco & Huitema, Robert & Ludwig, Markus, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Ross Recovery Theorem," Economics Working Paper Series 1411, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    6. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    7. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    8. Paul A. Samuelson, 1937. "A Note on Measurement of Utility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 155-161.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dillschneider, Yannick & Maurer, Raimond, 2019. "Functional Ross recovery: Theoretical results and empirical tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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