Overconfident investors and probability misjudgments
This paper explores systematic distortions of subjective probabilities by overconfident investors. In agreement with many non-expected utility theories, our devised setup acknowledges nonlinear weighting of physical probabilities by both rational and overconfident investors. Overconfidence - assumed to be higher after a history of gains and lower after a history of losses - changes these probability transformations. Using US asset price data, overconfident investors are found to be more optimistic than rational investors about future prospects.
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Volume (Year): 39 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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