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A Fractal View on Losses Attributable to Scams in the Market for Initial Coin Offerings

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Grobys

    (School of Accounting and Finance, University of Vaasa, P.O. Box 700, FI-65101 Vaasa, Finland)

  • Timothy King

    (School of Accounting and Finance, University of Vaasa, P.O. Box 700, FI-65101 Vaasa, Finland)

  • Niranjan Sapkota

    (School of Accounting and Finance, University of Vaasa, P.O. Box 700, FI-65101 Vaasa, Finland)

Abstract

Analogous to traditional Initial Public Offerings (IPO), Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) represent an emerging channel through which firms can access external funding using the new evolving digital financial market for tokens. However, while ICOs represent an alternative funding channel for startups, the ICO market is essentially unregulated, which creates opportunities for fraud such as ‘ICO scams’. This paper addresses the question as to what the expected losses attributable to scams in the market for ICOs are. Using web scrapping techniques, all ICOs launched between August 2014 and December 2019 were first screened for accusations of fraud, before a novel methodological framework was employed to understand the true costs associated with scams. The findings reveal that 56.80% of ICOs were subject to scams, corresponding to 65.80% of the relevant market capitalization, estimated at USD 15.38 billion. Moreover, it is found that the loss distribution due to scam ICOs is governed by a fractal process. Specifically, the power law exponent for the distribution governing losses due to scam ICOs suggests that the second moment is not defined, rendering the sample mean unstable. Taken together, the results in this paper provide evidence that we have not yet seen the largest loss in the market for ICOs and are supportive of an urgent need for ICO market regulations from governments and regulatory agencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Grobys & Timothy King & Niranjan Sapkota, 2022. "A Fractal View on Losses Attributable to Scams in the Market for Initial Coin Offerings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:579-:d:993839
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tinghua Duan, 2019. "Initial Coin Offerings and Entrepreneurial Finance: The Role of Founders’ Characteristics," Post-Print hal-02512437, HAL.
    2. Lars Hornuf & Theresa Kück & Armin Schwienbacher, 2022. "Initial coin offerings, information disclosure, and fraud," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1741-1759, April.
    3. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100409, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2018. "Time-varying volatility and the power law distribution of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 123-141.
    5. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 293-319.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(5), pages 421-421.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sapkota, Niranjan & Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "Fear sells: On the sentiment deceptions and fundraising success of initial coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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