IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v14y2021i10p457-d644250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyst Forecasts during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from REITs

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Anglin

    (Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Jianxin Cui

    (HKU Business School, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong)

  • Yanmin Gao

    (School of Business and Economics, Thompson Rivers University, 805 TRU Way, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8, Canada)

  • Li Zhang

    (School of Business and Economics, Thompson Rivers University, 805 TRU Way, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8, Canada)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupts capital markets and confuses decision makers. This event represents an opportunity to better understand how financial analysts forecast earnings. We focus on forecasts for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the United States, since REITs are relatively transparent during normal times, and since the real estate sector, as a whole, displays wide variations in forecasts during the pandemic. Using data between October 2018 and November 2020, our regression analysis finds that the severity of the pandemic increases analysts’ forecast error and dispersion. Government interventions have an offsetting effect, which is relevant during the more severe times. These results are robust to various measures of the severity of the pandemic. We also find that the pandemic has differential effects across property types, where forecast error rises by more, for REITs, when focusing on Hospitality and Industrial properties, and dispersion rises by more, for REITs, when focusing on Hospitality, Retail, and Technology properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Anglin & Jianxin Cui & Yanmin Gao & Li Zhang, 2021. "Analyst Forecasts during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from REITs," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:10:p:457-:d:644250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/10/457/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/10/457/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M Stulz, 2021. "How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5474-5521.
    2. Joos, Peter & Piotroski, Joseph D. & Srinivasan, Suraj, 2016. "Can analysts assess fundamental risk and valuation uncertainty? An empirical analysis of scenario-based value estimates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 645-663.
    3. Qiang Cheng & Fei Du & Xin Wang & Yutao Wang, 2016. "Seeing is believing: analysts’ corporate site visits," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1245-1286, December.
    4. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    5. Bae, Kee-Hong & Stulz, René M. & Tan, Hongping, 2008. "Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 581-606, June.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & Robert S. Fletcher & Ethan Yeh, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms," NBER Working Papers 28314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ding, Wenzhi & Levine, Ross & Lin, Chen & Xie, Wensi, 2021. "Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 802-830.
    8. Michael J. Highfield & Lily Shen & Thomas M. Springer, 2021. "Economies of Scale and the Operating Efficiency of REITs: A Revisit," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 108-138, January.
    9. Scott R Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J Davis & Kyle Kost & Marco Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 742-758.
    10. Manish Gupta, 2022. "Asset Tangibility, Corporate Decisions, and Cash Flow Shocks: Evidence from the REIT Modernization Act," Review of Corporate Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(2), pages 393-426, May.
    11. Ruoran Xu & Joseph T. L. Ooi, 2018. "Good Growth, Bad Growth: How Effective are REITs’ Corporate Watchdogs?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 64-86, July.
    12. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    13. Christian Leuz & Peter D. Wysocki, 2016. "The Economics of Disclosure and Financial Reporting Regulation: Evidence and Suggestions for Future Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 525-622, May.
    14. Xiaoling Chu & Chiuling Lu & Desmond Tsang, 2021. "Geographic Scope and Real Estate Firm Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    15. David C. Ling & Chongyu Wang & Tingyu Zhou, 2021. "Institutional common ownership and firm value: Evidence from real estate investment trusts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 187-223, March.
    16. Augustin Landier & David Thesmar & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "Earnings Expectations during the COVID-19 Crisis," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 598-617.
    17. David C. Ling & Chongyu Wang & Tingyu Zhou, 2021. "The Geography of Real Property Information and Investment: Firm Location, Asset Location and Institutional Ownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 287-331, March.
    18. Prashant Das & Julia Freybote & Gianluca Marcato, 2015. "An Investigation into Sentiment-Induced Institutional Trading Behavior and Asset Pricing in the REIT Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 160-189, August.
    19. John C. Coates IV, 2007. "The Goals and Promise of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 91-116, Winter.
    20. Gholipour, Hassan F. & Tajaddini, Reza & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Yam, Sharon, 2021. "Responses of REITs index and commercial property prices to economic uncertainties: A VAR analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    21. Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Torous, Walter & Yae, James, 2016. "Reading the tea leaves: Model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts’ forecast errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 42-64.
    22. Eli Beracha & Zifeng Feng & William G. Hardin, 2019. "REIT Operational Efficiency: Performance, Risk, and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 408-437, April.
    23. Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2020. "Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "An Economist's Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 79-104, Fall.
    25. Laura Alfaro & Anusha Chari & Andrew N. Greenland & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 26950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mensi, Walid & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Spillover and connectedness among G7 real estate investment trusts: The effects of investor sentiment and global factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Changes in Consumption in the Early COVID-19 Era: Zip-Code Level Evidence from the U.S," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-10, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoling Chu & Chiuling Lu & Desmond Tsang, 2021. "Geographic Scope and Real Estate Firm Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Stephen J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2020. "Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," Working Papers 2020-156, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Steven J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 32-67, March.
    4. Nils Engelhardt & Jens Ekkenga & Peter Posch, 2021. "ESG Ratings and Stock Performance during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Amore, Mario Daniele & Pelucco, Valerio & Quarato, Fabio, 2022. "Family ownership during the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Barry, John W. & Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Ma, Yueran, 2022. "Corporate flexibility in a time of crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 780-806.
    7. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    8. Xue, Fujing & Li, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Ting & Hu, Nan, 2021. "Stock market reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic: The moderating role of corporate big data strategies based on Word2Vec," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Neukirchen, Daniel & Engelhardt, Nils & Krause, Miguel & Posch, Peter N., 2022. "Firm efficiency and stock returns during the COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Neukirchen, Daniel & Engelhardt, Nils & Krause, Miguel & Posch, Peter N., 2023. "The value of (private) investor relations during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2022. "The role of non-critical business and telework propensity in international stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Wagner, Alexander F. & Glossner, Simon & Matos, Pedro Pinto & Ramelli, Stefano, 2022. "Do institutional investors stabilize equity markets in crisis periods? Evidence from COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Greppmair, Stefan & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Bats, Joost & Greif, William & Kapp, Daniel, 2022. "The rise in the cross-sectoral dispersion of earnings expectations during COVID-19," Working Paper Series 2664, European Central Bank.
    16. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Al Mamun, Mohammed Abdullah, 2021. "How resilient are the Asia Pacific financial markets against a global pandemic?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Roddy Allan & Ervi Liusman & Teddy Lu & Desmond Tsang, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Commercial Property Rent Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, August.
    18. Garel, Alexandre & Petit-Romec, Arthur, 2021. "Investor rewards to environmental responsibility: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Ducret, Romain, 2021. "Investors' perception of business group membership during an economic crisis : Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," FSES Working Papers 524, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    20. Ľuboš Pástor & M Blair Vorsatz & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "Mutual Fund Performance and Flows during the COVID-19 Crisis," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 791-833.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:10:p:457-:d:644250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.