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The Relationship between Health Expenditures and Economic Growth in EU Countries: Empirical Evidence Using Panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Causality Test and Regression Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ayfer Ozyilmaz

    (Department of Foreign Trade, University of Kocaeli, İzmit 41650, Turkey)

  • Yuksel Bayraktar

    (Department of Economics, Istanbul University, Istanbul 34452, Turkey)

  • Esme Isik

    (Department of Opticianry, Malatya Turgut Ozal University, Malatya 44700, Turkey)

  • Metin Toprak

    (Department of Economics, Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University, Istanbul 34303, Turkey)

  • Mehmet Bilal Er

    (Department of Computer Engineering, Harran University, Sanliurfa 63050, Turkey)

  • Furkan Besel

    (Department of Public Finance, Sakarya University, Sakarya 54187, Turkey)

  • Serdar Aydin

    (School of Health Sciences, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA)

  • Mehmet Firat Olgun

    (The Department of Technology Transfer, Kastamonu University, Kastamonu 37150, Turkey)

  • Sandra Collins

    (School of Health Sciences, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of health expenditures on economic growth in the period 2000–2019 in 27 European Union (EU) countries. First, the causality relationship between the variables was analyzed using the panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Causality test. The findings demonstrate a bidirectional causality relationship between health expenditures and economic growth on a panel basis. Secondly, the effects of health expenditures on economic growth were examined using the Random Forest Method for the panel and then for each country. According to the Random Forest Method, health expenditures positively affected economic growth, but on the country basis, the effect was different. Then, government health expenditures, private health expenditures, and out-of-pocket expenditures were used, and these three variables were ranked in order of importance in terms of their effects on growth using the Random Forest Method. Accordingly, government health expenditures were the most important variable for economic growth. Finally, Support Vector Regression, Gaussian Process Regression, and Decision Tree Regression models were designed for the simulation of the data used in this study, and the performances of the designed models were analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayfer Ozyilmaz & Yuksel Bayraktar & Esme Isik & Metin Toprak & Mehmet Bilal Er & Furkan Besel & Serdar Aydin & Mehmet Firat Olgun & Sandra Collins, 2022. "The Relationship between Health Expenditures and Economic Growth in EU Countries: Empirical Evidence Using Panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Causality Test and Regression Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:22:p:15091-:d:974335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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