IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i16p8760-d617853.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China

Author

Listed:
  • Yao Xiao

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Chengzhen Meng

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Suli Huang

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yanran Duan

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China)

  • Gang Liu

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Shuyuan Yu

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Ji Peng

    (Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, 2021 Buxin Rd, Shenzhen 518020, China)

  • Jinquan Cheng

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Ping Yin

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China)

Abstract

Temperature change is an important meteorological indicator reflecting weather stability. This study aimed to examine the effects of ambient temperature change on non-accidental mortality using diurnal temperature change (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) from two perspectives, intra-day and inter-day temperature change, and further, to explore seasonal variations of mortality, identify the susceptible population and investigate the interaction between temperature change and apparent temperature (AT). We collected daily data on cause-specific mortality, air pollutants and meteorological indicators in Shenzhen, China, from 1 January 2013 to 29 December 2017. A Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were conducted to estimate the effects of season on temperature change-related mortality. In addition, a non-parametric bivariate response surface model was used to explore the interaction between temperature change and AT. The cumulative effect of DTR was a U-shaped curve for non-accidental mortality, whereas the curve for TCN was nearly monotonic. The overall relative risks (RRs) of non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were 1.407 (95% CI: 1.233–1.606), 1.470 (95% CI: 1.220–1.771) and 1.741 (95% CI: 1.157–2.620) from exposure to extreme large DTR (99th) in cold seasons. However, no statistically significant effects were observed in warm seasons. As for TCN, the effects were higher in cold seasons than warm seasons, with the largest RR of 1.611 (95% CI: 1.384–1.876). The elderly and females were more sensitive, and low apparent temperature had a higher effect on temperature change-related non-accidental mortality. Temperature change was positively correlated with an increased risk of non-accidental mortality in Shenzhen. Both female and elderly people are more vulnerable to the potential adverse effects, especially in cold seasons. Low AT may enhance the effects of temperature change.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao Xiao & Chengzhen Meng & Suli Huang & Yanran Duan & Gang Liu & Shuyuan Yu & Ji Peng & Jinquan Cheng & Ping Yin, 2021. "Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8760-:d:617853
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/16/8760/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/16/8760/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schenker N. & Gentleman J. F., 2001. "On Judging the Significance of Differences by Examining the Overlap Between Confidence Intervals," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 55, pages 182-186, August.
    2. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    3. Jian Cheng & Rui Zhu & Zhiwei Xu & Xiangqing Xu & Xu Wang & Kesheng Li & Hong Su, 2014. "Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 59(6), pages 923-931, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iara da Silva & Caroline Fernanda Hei Wikuats & Elizabeth Mie Hashimoto & Leila Droprinchinski Martins, 2022. "Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Yunquan Zhang & Chuanhua Yu & Jin Yang & Lan Zhang & Fangfang Cui, 2017. "Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Michael Tong & Berhanu Wondmagegn & Jianjun Xiang & Alana Hansen & Keith Dear & Dino Pisaniello & Blesson Varghese & Jianguo Xiao & Le Jian & Benjamin Scalley & Monika Nitschke & John Nairn & Hilary B, 2022. "Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Domínguez-Torreiro, Marcos & Soliño, Mario, 2011. "Provided and perceived status quo in choice experiments: Implications for valuing the outputs of multifunctional rural areas," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2523-2531.
    6. Kai Luo & Wenjing Li & Ruiming Zhang & Runkui Li & Qun Xu & Yang Cao, 2016. "Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality: Adjustment of the Meteorological Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Miller, Reid & Golab, Lukasz & Rosenberg, Catherine, 2017. "Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 534-546.
    8. Yunfei Cheng & Tatiana Ermolieva & Gui-Ying Cao & Xiaoying Zheng, 2018. "Health Impacts of Exposure to Gaseous Pollutants and Particulate Matter in Beijing—A Non-Linear Analysis Based on the New Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, September.
    9. Malebo Sephule Makunyane & Hannes Rautenbach & Neville Sweijd & Joel Botai & Janine Wichmann, 2023. "Health Risks of Temperature Variability on Hospital Admissions in Cape Town, 2011–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Lee, Won Sang & Sohn, So Young, 2018. "Effects of standardization on the evolution of information and communications technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 308-317.
    11. Tim Goedemé & Karel Van den Bosch & Lina Salanauskaite & Gerlinde Verbist, 2013. "Testing the Statistical Significance of Microsimulation Results: Often Easier than You Think. A Technical Note," ImPRovE Working Papers 13/10, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    12. Bonnie R. Joubert & Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou & Toccara Chamberlain & Hua Yun Chen & Chris Gennings & Mary E. Turyk & Marie Lynn Miranda & Thomas F. Webster & Katherine B. Ensor & David B. Dunson, 2022. "Powering Research through Innovative Methods for Mixtures in Epidemiology (PRIME) Program: Novel and Expanded Statistical Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-24, January.
    13. Thomas Yee & Alfian Hadi, 2014. "Row–column interaction models, with an R implementation," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 1427-1445, December.
    14. Xerxes T. Seposo & Tran Ngoc Dang & Yasushi Honda, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Andrew Kerner & Morten Jerven & Alison Beatty, 2017. "Does it pay to be poor? Testing for systematically underreported GNI estimates," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-38, March.
    16. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Mieczysław Szyszkowicz, 2022. "Concentration–Response Functions as an Essence of the Results from Lags," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-11, July.
    18. McKendree, Melissa G.S. & Olynk Widmar, Nicole & Ortega, David L. & Foster, Kenneth A., 2013. "Consumer Preferences for Verified Pork-Rearing Practices in the Production of Ham Products," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 1-21.
    19. Kumar, Santosh & Nahlen, Bernard, 2023. "Intergenerational persistence of health: Evidence from India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    20. Paul Mwebaze & Jeff Bennett & Nigel W. Beebe & Gregor J. Devine & Paul Barro, 2018. "Economic Valuation of the Threat Posed by the Establishment of the Asian Tiger Mosquito in Australia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 357-379, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8760-:d:617853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.