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SIMLR: Machine Learning inside the SIR Model for COVID-19 Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Vega

    (Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
    Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute, Edmonton, AB T5J 3B1, Canada)

  • Leonardo Flores

    (Independent Researcher, San Luis Potosi 78170, Mexico)

  • Russell Greiner

    (Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
    Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute, Edmonton, AB T5J 3B1, Canada)

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the epidemiological SIR model. For each region, SIMLR tracks the changes in the policies implemented at the government level, which it uses to estimate the time-varying parameters of an SIR model for forecasting the number of new infections one to four weeks in advance. It also forecasts the probability of changes in those government policies at each of these future times, which is essential for the longer-range forecasts. We applied SIMLR to data from in Canada and the United States, and show that its mean average percentage error is as good as state-of-the-art forecasting models, with the added advantage of being an interpretable model. We expect that this approach will be useful not only for forecasting COVID-19 infections, but also in predicting the evolution of other infectious diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Vega & Leonardo Flores & Russell Greiner, 2022. "SIMLR: Machine Learning inside the SIR Model for COVID-19 Forecasting," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:5-94:d:723710
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. Gregory L Watson & Di Xiong & Lu Zhang & Joseph A Zoller & John Shamshoian & Phillip Sundin & Teresa Bufford & Anne W Rimoin & Marc A Suchard & Christina M Ramirez, 2021. "Pandemic velocity: Forecasting COVID-19 in the US with a machine learning & Bayesian time series compartmental model," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Farrukh Saleem & Abdullah Saad AL-Malaise AL-Ghamdi & Madini O. Alassafi & Saad Abdulla AlGhamdi, 2022. "Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Mathematical Models to Analyze Forecasting and Epidemiology of COVID-19: A Systematic Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Yong-Ju Jang & Min-Seung Kim & Chan-Ho Lee & Ji-Hye Choi & Jeong-Hee Lee & Sun-Hong Lee & Tae-Eung Sung, 2022. "A Novel Approach on Deep Learning—Based Decision Support System Applying Multiple Output LSTM-Autoencoder: Focusing on Identifying Variations by PHSMs’ Effect over COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Sonia Leva, 2022. "Editorial for Special Issue: “Feature Papers of Forecasting 2021”," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-3, March.

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