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A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems

Author

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  • Nima Amjady

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran)

  • Farshid Keynia

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran)

Abstract

Short-term load forecast (STLF) is an important operational function in both regulated power systems and deregulated open electricity markets. However, STLF is not easy to handle due to the nonlinear and random-like behaviors of system loads, weather conditions, and social and economic environment variations. Despite the research work performed in the area, more accurate and robust STLF methods are still needed due to the importance and complexity of STLF. In this paper, a new neural network approach for STLF is proposed. The proposed neural network has a novel learning algorithm based on a new modified harmony search technique. This learning algorithm can widely search the solution space in various directions, and it can also avoid the overfitting problem, trapping in local minima and dead bands. Based on this learning algorithm, the suggested neural network can efficiently extract the input/output mapping function of the forecast process leading to high STLF accuracy. The proposed approach is tested on two practical power systems and the results obtained are compared with the results of several other recently published STLF methods. These comparisons confirm the validity of the developed approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Nima Amjady & Farshid Keynia, 2011. "A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:4:y:2011:i:3:p:488-503:d:11654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Stuart McMenamin & Frank A. Monforte, 1998. "Short Term Energy Forecasting with Neural Networks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 43-61.
    2. Amjady, N. & Keynia, F., 2009. "Short-term load forecasting of power systems by combination of wavelet transform and neuro-evolutionary algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 46-57.
    3. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number hsbook0601, December.
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