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Impact of Climate Change on Wind Power Generation Studied Using Multivariate Copula Downscaling: A Case Study in Northwestern China

Author

Listed:
  • Shen Wang

    (Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China)

  • Jing Wu

    (Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China)

  • Lianhong Lv

    (Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
    Joint Research Program for Ecological Conservation and High Quality Development of the Yellow River Basin, Beijing 100012, China)

Abstract

Climate change can modify regional wind power generation ability, as it may affect wind speed. Here, we developed a multivariate copula downscaling (MvCD) approach to statistically downscale the near-surface wind speed of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) to the scale of wind farms in Urumqi, China. The low computational cost and high random analysis capability of this approach allowed the rapid assessment of projected changes and randomness from nine GCMs, spanning a range of potential futures under four scenarios. Simulation data from multiple GCMs and historical data of the study area were incorporated into the MvCD to generate a high dimensional multivariate copula. Thereafter, the high dimensional multivariate copula was further used to identify future wind speed patterns based on multiple GCMs under different CO 2 emission scenarios. The estimated amount of wind power generation was obtained using future wind speed data. Results revealed the regional characteristics and periodicity of wind speed for Urumqi in the future. Wind power generation results revealed the impacts of climate changes on regional wind power generation and indicated that high wind speeds would occur from June to September and low wind speeds would occur from December to March in future scenarios. Wind speed would be more extreme under each scenario in the future than before. The highest and lowest wind speeds will increase and decrease, respectively. Sustained high winds would increase the potential of wind power generation in the future. Wind instability based on CO 2 emission increases will lead to wind power being curtailed and low wind-power generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen Wang & Jing Wu & Lianhong Lv, 2025. "Impact of Climate Change on Wind Power Generation Studied Using Multivariate Copula Downscaling: A Case Study in Northwestern China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:8:p:1963-:d:1632945
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    References listed on IDEAS

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