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Analysis of Severe Scarcity Situations in Finland’s Low Carbon Electricity System Until 2030

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  • Tero Koivunen

    (Department of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Aalto University, 02150 Espoo, Finland)

  • Sanna Syri

    (Department of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Aalto University, 02150 Espoo, Finland)

Abstract

This paper presents PLEXOS modelling of the Nordic and Baltic low-carbon electricity market until 2030, using a total of 35 different weather years’ (1982–2016) ERAA profiles as inputs for the modelling and focusing on the occurrence of severe electricity scarcity situations in Finland, analyzing their duration and depth. The expected development of generation and demand is modelled based on available authoritative sources, such as ENTSO-E TYNDP and national projections. The present amount of nuclear power in Finland and growing amounts of wind and solar generation across the Nordic electricity system are modelled. This study analyzes scarcity situations by calculating residual loads and the expected electricity spot market prices assuming the different weather years with the generation fleet and demand in 2024 and 2030 scenarios. This study finds that, despite the very significantly growing amount of variable renewable generation (42.5 TWh/a increase in wind generation from 2024 to 2030 in Finland only), the frequency and severity of scarcity situations will increase from 2024 to 2030. The main reasons are the retirement of Combined Heat and Power plants and the transition to more electrified district heating in Finland and the expected demand growth. The findings indicate that without further measures Finland is not sufficiently prepared for cold winter periods with high heating and electricity demand and events of serious scarcity can occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Tero Koivunen & Sanna Syri, 2024. "Analysis of Severe Scarcity Situations in Finland’s Low Carbon Electricity System Until 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:23:p:5928-:d:1529690
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaakko J. Jääskeläinen & Sakari Höysniemi & Sanna Syri & Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, 2018. "Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Johannes Hyvönen & Tero Koivunen & Sanna Syri, 2024. "Review of Climate Strategies in Northern Europe: Exposure to Potential Risks and Limitations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Michael G. Pollitt, 2023. "Energy markets under stress: some reflections on lessons from the energy crisis in Europe," Working Papers EPRG2317, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    4. Bowen Li & Sukanta Basu & Simon J. Watson & Herman W. J. Russchenberg, 2021. "A Brief Climatology of Dunkelflaute Events over and Surrounding the North and Baltic Sea Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-14, October.
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