IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i21p7167-d670143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Influencing Factors Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Prince Waqas Khan

    (Department of Computer Engineering, Jeju National University, Jeju-si 63243, Korea)

  • Yongjun Kim

    (Department of Computer Engineering, Jeju National University, Jeju-si 63243, Korea)

  • Yung-Cheol Byun

    (Department of Computer Engineering, Jeju National University, Jeju-si 63243, Korea)

  • Sang-Joon Lee

    (Department of Computer Engineering, Jeju National University, Jeju-si 63243, Korea)

Abstract

Modern computing resources, including machine learning-based techniques, are used to maintain stability between the demand and supply of electricity. Machine learning is widely used for the prediction of energy consumption. The researchers present several artificial intelligence and machine learning-based methods to improve the prediction accuracy of energy consumption. However, the discrepancy between actual energy consumption and predicted energy consumption is still challenging. Various factors, including changes in weather, holidays, and weekends, affect prediction accuracy. This article analyses the overall prediction using error curve learning and a hybrid model. Actual energy consumption data of Jeju island, South Korea, has been used for experimental purposes. We have used a hybrid ML model consisting of Catboost, Xgboost, and Multi-layer perceptron for the prediction. Then we analyze the factors that affect the week-ahead (WA) and 48 h prediction results. Mean error on weekdays is recorded as 2.78%, for weekends 2.79%, and for special days it is recorded as 4.28%. We took into consideration significant predicting errors and looked into the reasons behind those errors. Furthermore, we analyzed whether factors, such as a sudden change in temperature and typhoons, had an effect on energy consumption. Finally, the authors have considered the other factors, such as public holidays and weekends, to analyze the significant errors in the prediction. This study can be helpful for policymakers to make policies according to the error-causing factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Prince Waqas Khan & Yongjun Kim & Yung-Cheol Byun & Sang-Joon Lee, 2021. "Influencing Factors Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:21:p:7167-:d:670143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7167/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7167/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ion LUNGU & Adela BÂRA & George CĂRUTASU & Alexandru PÎRJAN, & Simona-Vasilica OPREA, 2016. "Prediction Intelligent System In The Field Of Renewable Energies Through Neural Networks," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 85-102.
    2. Alina Zaharia & Maria Claudia Diaconeasa & Laura Brad & Georgiana-Raluca Lădaru & Corina Ioanăș, 2019. "Factors Influencing Energy Consumption in the Context of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Cornejo-Bueno, L. & Prieto, L. & Paredes, D. & García-Herrera, R., 2018. "Feature selection in machine learning prediction systems for renewable energy applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 728-741.
    4. Rahman, Aowabin & Srikumar, Vivek & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 372-385.
    5. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Mansur, Erin T., 2014. "Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 522-530.
    6. Ekonomou, L., 2010. "Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 512-517.
    7. Fernández, Eduardo F. & Talavera, D.L. & Almonacid, Florencia M. & Smestad, Greg P., 2016. "Investigating the impact of weather variables on the energy yield and cost of energy of grid-connected solar concentrator systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 790-801.
    8. Cedric De Cauwer & Joeri Van Mierlo & Thierry Coosemans, 2015. "Energy Consumption Prediction for Electric Vehicles Based on Real-World Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Wang, Jian Qi & Du, Yu & Wang, Jing, 2020. "LSTM based long-term energy consumption prediction with periodicity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. David L. McCollum, 2021. "Machine learning for energy projections," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 121-122, February.
    11. Chengdong Li & Zixiang Ding & Dongbin Zhao & Jianqiang Yi & Guiqing Zhang, 2017. "Building Energy Consumption Prediction: An Extreme Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Shi, Zhongtuo & Yao, Wei & Li, Zhouping & Zeng, Lingkang & Zhao, Yifan & Zhang, Runfeng & Tang, Yong & Wen, Jinyu, 2020. "Artificial intelligence techniques for stability analysis and control in smart grids: Methodologies, applications, challenges and future directions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    13. Muhammad Ikram, 2021. "Models for Predicting Non-Renewable Energy Competing with Renewable Source for Sustainable Energy Development: Case of Asia and Oceania Region," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 22(2), pages 133-160, December.
    14. Dafnomilis, Ioannis & Hoefnagels, Ric & Pratama, Yudistira W. & Schott, Dingena L. & Lodewijks, Gabriel & Junginger, Martin, 2017. "Review of solid and liquid biofuel demand and supply in Northwest Europe towards 2030 – A comparison of national and regional projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 31-45.
    15. Prince Waqas Khan & Yung-Cheol Byun & Sang-Joon Lee & Dong-Ho Kang & Jin-Young Kang & Hae-Su Park, 2020. "Machine Learning-Based Approach to Predict Energy Consumption of Renewable and Nonrenewable Power Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    16. Reitler, W. & Rudolph, M. & Schaefer, H., 1987. "Analysis of the factors influencing energy consumption in industry : A revised method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 145-148, July.
    17. Nejat, Payam & Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Taheri, Mohammad Mahdi & Gohari, Mohammad & Abd. Majid, Muhd Zaimi, 2015. "A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 843-862.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bianca Goia & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel, 2022. "Virtual Power Plant Optimization in Smart Grids: A Narrative Review," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Xiwen Cui & Xinyu Guan & Dongyu Wang & Dongxiao Niu & Xiaomin Xu, 2022. "Can China Meet Its 2030 Total Energy Consumption Target? Based on an RF-SSA-SVR-KDE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Mariusz Reczulski & Włodzimierz Szewczyk & Michał Kuczkowski, 2023. "Possibilities of Reducing the Heat Energy Consumption in a Tissue Paper Machine—Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seok-Jun Bu & Sung-Bae Cho, 2020. "Time Series Forecasting with Multi-Headed Attention-Based Deep Learning for Residential Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhou, Ruoyu & Liu, Wenjing, 2021. "A general transfer learning-based framework for thermal load prediction in regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Manzano, J.M. & Salvador, J.R. & Romaine, J.B. & Alvarado-Barrios, L., 2022. "Economic predictive control for isolated microgrids based on real world demand/renewable energy data and forecast errors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 647-658.
    5. Jin-Young Kim & Sung-Bae Cho, 2019. "Electric Energy Consumption Prediction by Deep Learning with State Explainable Autoencoder," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Wang, Bin & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Energy futures price prediction and evaluation model with deep bidirectional gated recurrent unit neural network and RIF-based algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Sunil Kumar Mohapatra & Sushruta Mishra & Hrudaya Kumar Tripathy & Akash Kumar Bhoi & Paolo Barsocchi, 2021. "A Pragmatic Investigation of Energy Consumption and Utilization Models in the Urban Sector Using Predictive Intelligence Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-28, June.
    8. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    9. Li, Guannan & Li, Fan & Ahmad, Tanveer & Liu, Jiangyan & Li, Tao & Fang, Xi & Wu, Yubei, 2022. "Performance evaluation of sequence-to-sequence-Attention model for short-term multi-step ahead building energy predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    10. Roozbeh Sadeghian Broujeny & Safa Ben Ayed & Mouadh Matalah, 2023. "Energy Consumption Forecasting in a University Office by Artificial Intelligence Techniques: An Analysis of the Exogenous Data Effect on the Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, May.
    11. Ding, Jia & Zhao, Yuxuan & Jin, Junyang, 2023. "Forecasting natural gas consumption with multiple seasonal patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    12. Chen, Sai & Song, Yan & Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2021. "Using long short-term memory model to study risk assessment and prediction of China’s oil import from the perspective of resilience theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    13. Fan, Cheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Gang, Wenjie & Li, Shenghan, 2019. "Assessment of deep recurrent neural network-based strategies for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 700-710.
    14. Zhang, Mingyang & Zhang, Kaiwen & Hu, Wuyang & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Ping & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2020. "Exploring the climatic impacts on residential electricity consumption in Jiangsu, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Tran, Duc-Hoc & Luong, Duc-Long & Chou, Jui-Sheng, 2020. "Nature-inspired metaheuristic ensemble model for forecasting energy consumption in residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Ye, Zhongnan & Cheng, Kuangly & Hsu, Shu-Chien & Wei, Hsi-Hsien & Cheung, Clara Man, 2021. "Identifying critical building-oriented features in city-block-level building energy consumption: A data-driven machine learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    17. Wei, Yixuan & Xia, Liang & Pan, Song & Wu, Jinshun & Zhang, Xingxing & Han, Mengjie & Zhang, Weiya & Xie, Jingchao & Li, Qingping, 2019. "Prediction of occupancy level and energy consumption in office building using blind system identification and neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 276-294.
    18. Seyed Azad Nabavi & Alireza Aslani & Martha A. Zaidan & Majid Zandi & Sahar Mohammadi & Naser Hossein Motlagh, 2020. "Machine Learning Modeling for Energy Consumption of Residential and Commercial Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-22, October.
    19. Hwang, Jun Kwon & Yun, Geun Young & Lee, Sukho & Seo, Hyeongjoon & Santamouris, Mat, 2020. "Using deep learning approaches with variable selection process to predict the energy performance of a heating and cooling system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1227-1245.
    20. Sarhang Sorguli & Husam Rjoub, 2023. "A Novel Energy Accounting Model Using Fuzzy Restricted Boltzmann Machine—Recurrent Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:21:p:7167-:d:670143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.