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Review of solid and liquid biofuel demand and supply in Northwest Europe towards 2030 – A comparison of national and regional projections

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  • Dafnomilis, Ioannis
  • Hoefnagels, Ric
  • Pratama, Yudistira W.
  • Schott, Dingena L.
  • Lodewijks, Gabriel
  • Junginger, Martin

Abstract

Biomass is the largest source of renewable energy carrier in the European Union (EU) contributing to over 60% of renewable energy, with the majority of supply coming from domestic sources. However, an increasing significant amount of feedstock is imported, either due to domestic undersupply or higher production costs within the country. This article provides an up-to-date view of bioenergy supply, demand and trade in Northwest Europe to 2030. Projections of the energy system model Green-X are compared to recent national studies concerning bioenergy imports. The results show that there is a sizeable gap of the projection bandwidths after the 2020 horizon. Projections might under- or overestimate biomass potential in certain cases, depending on whether they are derived from national reports or regional models, whether future policy developments were taken into account etc. The ranges of biomass consumption are multiple times apart by 2020 already, and the gap increases by 2030. Total biomass imports in the region can range between 14 and 44.3 Mt by 2020 and 18.5–60 Mt by 2030.

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  • Dafnomilis, Ioannis & Hoefnagels, Ric & Pratama, Yudistira W. & Schott, Dingena L. & Lodewijks, Gabriel & Junginger, Martin, 2017. "Review of solid and liquid biofuel demand and supply in Northwest Europe towards 2030 – A comparison of national and regional projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 31-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:31-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.108
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    11. Brinkman, Marnix L.J. & Wicke, Birka & Faaij, André P.C. & van der Hilst, Floor, 2019. "Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Mandley, S.J. & Daioglou, V. & Junginger, H.M. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Wicke, B., 2020. "EU bioenergy development to 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
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