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A Method to Facilitate Uncertainty Analysis in LCAs of Buildings

Author

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  • Francesco Pomponi

    (Institute for Sustainable Construction, Edinburgh Napier University, Colinton Road, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, UK)

  • Bernardino D’Amico

    (Institute for Sustainable Construction, Edinburgh Napier University, Colinton Road, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, UK)

  • Alice M. Moncaster

    (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1PZ, UK)

Abstract

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is increasingly becoming a common technique to assess the embodied energy and carbon of buildings and their components over their life cycle. However, the vast majority of existing LCAs result in very definite, deterministic values which carry a false sense of certainty and can mislead decisions and judgments. This article tackles the lack of uncertainty analysis in LCAs of buildings by addressing the main causes for not undertaking this important activity. The research uses primary data for embodied energy collected from European manufacturers as a starting point. Such robust datasets are used as inputs for the stochastic modelling of uncertainty through Monte Carlo algorithms. Several groups of random samplings between 10 1 and 10 7 are tested under two scenarios: data are normally distributed (empirically verified) and data are uniformly distributed. Results show that the hypothesis on the data no longer influences the results after a high enough number of random samplings (10 4 ). This finding holds true both in terms of mean values and standard deviations and is also independent of the size of the life cycle inventory (LCI): it occurs in both large and small datasets. Findings from this research facilitate uncertainty analysis in LCA. By reducing significantly the amount of data necessary to infer information about uncertainty, a more widespread inclusion of uncertainty analysis in LCA can be encouraged in assessments from practitioners and academics alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Pomponi & Bernardino D’Amico & Alice M. Moncaster, 2017. "A Method to Facilitate Uncertainty Analysis in LCAs of Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:4:p:524-:d:95694
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christofer Skaar & Nathalie Labonnote & Klodian Gradeci, 2018. "From Zero Emission Buildings (ZEB) to Zero Emission Neighbourhoods (ZEN): A Mapping Review of Algorithm-Based LCA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Peter Ylmén & Johanna Berlin & Kristina Mjörnell & Jesper Arfvidsson, 2020. "Managing Choice Uncertainties in Life-Cycle Assessment as a Decision-Support Tool for Building Design: A Case Study on Building Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Gianluca Maracchini & Rocco Di Filippo & Rossano Albatici & Oreste S. Bursi & Rosa Di Maggio, 2023. "Sustainable Retrofit of Existing Buildings: Impact Assessment of Residual Fluorocarbons through Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Jim Hart & Bernardino D'Amico & Francesco Pomponi, 2021. "Whole‐life embodied carbon in multistory buildings: Steel, concrete and timber structures," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 403-418, April.
    5. Dongli Tan & Yao Wu & Zhiqing Zhang & Yue Jiao & Lingchao Zeng & Yujun Meng, 2023. "Assessing the Life Cycle Sustainability of Solar Energy Production Systems: A Toolkit Review in the Context of Ensuring Environmental Performance Improvements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-37, July.
    6. Elisa Di Giuseppe & Marco D’Orazio & Guangli Du & Claudio Favi & Sébastien Lasvaux & Gianluca Maracchini & Pierryves Padey, 2020. "A Stochastic Approach to LCA of Internal Insulation Solutions for Historic Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-35, February.
    7. Charles Breton & Pierre Blanchet & Ben Amor & Robert Beauregard & Wen-Shao Chang, 2018. "Assessing the Climate Change Impacts of Biogenic Carbon in Buildings: A Critical Review of Two Main Dynamic Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-30, June.

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