Government Subsidies and Industrial Productivity in South Africa: A Focus on the Channels

This article estimates the impact of government subsidies on productivity growth in South Africa, joining the ongoing debate among economists regarding the effectiveness of subsidies as a driver of industrial productivity. While some argue that subsidies address market failures, facilitate R&D, and improve efficiency, others criticise the attendant dependence, which reduces the incentive for industries to operate efficiently. This article contributes by examining the specific channels—efficiency and technical changes—through which subsidies affect productivity in South Africa. The analysis is based on a panel dataset comprising 64 three-digit industries observed between 1993 and 2023. Estimation is performed through an endogeneity robust panel stochastic frontier model, which treats subsidies as both an inefficiency driver and a technology variable. An additional estimation approach is proposed integrating the true fixed effects with a control function in a bid to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and idiosyncratic endogeneity. The results show that subsidies are detrimental to productivity, particularly through stifling technological progress. This result supports the view that subsidies reduce the incentive for beneficiaries to innovate. This evidence calls for a reevaluation and a possible restructuring of subsidy programmes in South Africa in a bid to mitigate their adverse effects on industrial productivity.