Impact of COVID-19-Related Mobility Changes on the Mango Market: A Case Study of Tokyo, Japan

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tokyo mango market by combining transaction data from the Ota Fruit Market with Google Mobility indices. In Japan, mangoes are regarded as a luxury fruit, largely dependent on imports and associated with high domestic production costs, which positions them as premium commodities. To assess the influence of price dynamics and human mobility on mango trading volumes during the pandemic, this study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The long-run results indicate that mango demand was positively associated with increased residential activity: a 1% rise in time spent at home during the COVID era corresponded to an increase of 786 kg in trade volume. Similarly, a 1% increase in time spent in retail and recreation areas was associated with a 364 kg rise in trade volume. In contrast, time spent in grocery and pharmacy locations showed no statistically significant effect. In the short run, fluctuations in mobility patterns and price levels contributed to variations in demand, with sales volumes adjusting toward their long-run equilibrium. The mobility indices exhibited mixed short-term effects on trade volumes. Notably, the analysis revealed that mango trading volumes rebounded in 2022, coinciding with the easing of pandemic-related disruptions.