Exploring the Realization Pathways of Improving the Agricultural Green Production Level in the Major Grain-Producing Areas of China

Investigating the spatio-temporal trends in agricultural green production level and proposing pathways to improve it can offer valuable insights for promoting the green, low-carbon, and sustainable development of China’s agriculture, as well as contributing to the achievement of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Therefore, in order to investigate the spatio-temporal variations in agricultural green production level and its driving factors, and explore pathways to improve it in the major grain-producing areas of China, a new multi-dimensional framework for estimating the agricultural green production level was proposed, and based on the OLS regression and scenario prediction, the agricultural green production levels from 2012 to 2030 were estimated. The findings indicate that from 2012 to 2021, the agricultural green production level in the major grain-producing areas experienced a consistent annual increase. The average annual value for the agricultural green production level was recorded at 0.443. At a spatial scale, the agricultural green production level exhibited a pronounced regional pattern, showing higher levels in the central and eastern areas, while lower levels were noted in the northeastern and western regions. The actual utilization of foreign capital and the per capita disposable income of farmers positively influenced the agricultural green production level. In contrast, factors such as the proportion of the secondary industry, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and the urbanization rate negatively affected this level. From 2022 to 2030, the agricultural green production level is expected to demonstrate a gradual growth trend under the baseline scenario, although the rate of growth is expected to decrease over time. Conversely, under the green and sustainable development scenario, a notably significant growth trend in agricultural green production level is projected. However, under the rapid economic development scenario, it is estimated that the agricultural green production level will initially increase slowly before peaking in 2026 and then experiencing a decline. With the aim of ensuring the ongoing enhancement of agricultural green production level objectives, the major grain-producing areas should proactively encourage inter-provincial collaboration in agricultural green production, vigorously attract foreign investment to facilitate the advancement of green production technologies, promote the harmonious integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural regions, and improve farmers’ income.