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Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)

Author

Listed:
  • Hannah Jona von Czettritz

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Johannes Schuler

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Kurt-Christian Kersebaum

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
    Global Change Research Institute, The Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Peter Zander

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

Abstract

Climate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irrigated crops. Based on state-wide simulated yield data, the study compares two different scenarios. In the first scenario, the most profitable crop rotations based on predicted future weather conditions are chosen for each agro-ecological zone. In the second scenario, cropping plans are derived based on an adaption of the Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation) model taking climate-induced risks into account. A comparison of the scenarios shows a high risk reduction effect of diversification, while the economic risk reduction effect of irrigation only increases slightly. The trade-off between the highest possible gross margins and lower possible losses varies depending on the soil and climate conditions. Diversification contributed most to economic resilience in areas with moderate to low agricultural productivity. Subsidies focusing on diversification in less productive areas might be a tool to increase economic resilience with low risk-avoidance costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hannah Jona von Czettritz & Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani & Johannes Schuler & Kurt-Christian Kersebaum & Peter Zander, 2023. "Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:9:p:1740-:d:1231361
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Eric Strobl, 2022. "Preserving local biodiversity through crop diversification," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 1140-1174, May.
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