The Growth Effect and Its Influencing Factors: Empirical Evidence Regarding China’s Fruit and Vegetable Exports to RCEP Countries

Fruit and vegetable products, integral to human nutrition, play a vital role in dietary patterns. Moreover, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) region, a critical market for Chinese fruit and vegetable exports, has observed the growing presence of these Chinese produce groups. The ratification of the RCEP bolsters the liberalization of fruit and vegetable commerce in the region, consequently fostering opportunities for its development. Nonetheless, existing studies have insufficiently addressed fruit and vegetable commerce in the region and its consequent effect on trade expansion. In this context, it is crucial to analyze the trade pattern associated with the swift export growth of fruit and vegetables. This study employs binary marginal analysis and the stochastic frontier gravity model. This study’s findings reveal that, with respect to the growth effect, the expansion of China’s fruit and vegetable exports to RCEP countries in recent years primarily stems from the contribution of the extensive margin. Considering the factors influencing trade, metrics like free trade agreements (FTAs), the extent of trade liberalization, political expenditure levels, government transparency, and liner transport connectivity significantly impact China’s fruit and vegetable exports. Regarding trade efficiency, the current efficiency value of China’s fruit and vegetable exports to RCEP countries is relatively low, characterized by substantial country-specific variations and immense future trade potential. The insights gleaned from this research can offer decision-making support for the collaboration on fruit and vegetable trade between China and the RCEP region.