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Monetary Policy Interest Rate Channel in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto Method (2011-2018)

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  • Leyla BAÅžTAV

Abstract

This study analyzes the channel through which monetary policy has affected real economic activity in Turkey during 2011Q1-2018Q2. There is a novel monetary policy stance of the Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) from 2011 on, following the initiation of explicit inflation targeting in 2006. Within the framework financial stability is added to previous target of price stability and diversified interest rates and liquidity measures have been introduced as new tools along with classical short-term interest rate. Existence of interest channel has been tested by two causality methods, namely: Granger and Toda-Yamamoto. Results imply that interest channel is not operative in Turkey in the traditional and/or New Keynesian sense, but rather higher demand leads to higher prices (and vice versa) affecting interest rates in return. Findings do not comply with findings of the previous periods' studies that interest rate channel is effective in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Leyla BAÅžTAV, 2020. "Monetary Policy Interest Rate Channel in Turkey: Toda-Yamamoto Method (2011-2018)," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:fis:journl:200204
    DOI: 10.25295/fsecon.2020.02.004
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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