IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/00026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?

Author

Abstract

U.S. oil and natural gas production has grown significantly since 2005, reflecting a move toward shale gas and tight oil extraction. Since 2011, the most productive tight oil and shale gas fields accounted for nearly all of the growth in U.S. energy production, due largely to extensive use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. High energy prices made these costly technologies profitable to apply on a large scale. However, oil prices and rig counts declined sharply in 2014, calling into question whether the boom in U.S. oil production can continue. Nida ak?r Melek examines how falling oil prices, declining rig counts, and gains in rig and well efficiency could affect 2015 oil production. Her analysis suggests production could decline from 0.7 to 8 percent in 2015 despite highly productive new wells and increasing rig efficiency. For production to increase in 2015, rig efficiency and initial well production would need to increase markedly or the decline in rig counts would need to halt.

Suggested Citation

  • Nida Çakır Melek, 2015. "What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 51-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/470/2015-What%20Could%20Lower%20Prices%20Mean%20for%20U.S.%20Oil%20Production%3F.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Does the Oil Price Adjust Optimally to Oil Field Discoveries?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/169, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    2. Aurélien Saussay, 2015. "Can the US shale revolution be duplicated in europe ?," Working Papers hal-01140573, HAL.
    3. Thameur Necibi, 2014. "Prospective Modelling of Oil Supply in Tunisia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 220-228.
    4. Miller, Richard G., 2011. "Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1569-1574, March.
    5. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    6. David Grassian & Daniel Olsen, 2019. "Lifecycle Energy Accounting of Three Small Offshore Oil Fields," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Troy Davig & Michal Kowalik & Charles S. Morris & Kristen Regehr, 2015. "Bank consolidation and merger activity following the crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 31-49.
    8. Kuck, Konstantin & Schweikert, Karsten, 2017. "A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 16-31.
    9. Antonio García-Amate & Alicia Ramírez-Orellana & Mª José Muñoz-Torrecillas, 2018. "Economic Consequences Of Peak Oil For The Major Multinational Oil And Gas Companies," Eurasian Journal of Business and Management, Eurasian Publications, vol. 6(1), pages 23-41.
    10. Luis Mª Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2017. "Valuation of Real Options in Crude Oil Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    12. Ronald Helms & S. E. Costanza, 2014. "Energy Inequality and Instrumental Violence," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(2), pages 21582440145, April.
    13. Leena Grandell & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    15. Lovelace, R. & Beck, S.B.M. & Watson, M. & Wild, A., 2011. "Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2075-2087, April.
    16. Mandadige Samintha Anne Perera & Ranjith Pathegama Gamage & Tharaka Dilanka Rathnaweera & Ashani Savinda Ranathunga & Andrew Koay & Xavier Choi, 2016. "A Review of CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery with a Simulated Sensitivity Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-22, June.
    17. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Chapman, Ian, 2014. "The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 93-101.
    19. Charles F. Mason and Gavin Roberts, 2018. "Price Elasticity of Supply and Productivity: An Analysis of Natural Gas Wells in Wyoming," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    20. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.