IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/99956.html

A Rising Star: The Natural Interest Rate in the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Sarah Mouabbi

Abstract

The natural rate of interest, also known as r-star, is a key variable for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy. A novel method of measuring this rate for the euro area uses a yield curve model estimated directly on the prices of bonds that are indexed to euro-area inflation. Estimates suggest that the euro-area natural interest rate declined persistently in the two decades before the pandemic but has risen notably in recent years. Projections using this methodology suggest that the rate is likely to increase further, albeit more gradually.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2025. "A Rising Star: The Natural Interest Rate in the Euro Area," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(11), pages 1-6, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:99956
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2025-11.pdf
    File Function: PDF - view
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/05/rising-star-natural-interest-rate-in-euro-area/
    File Function: FRBSF - view
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claus Brand & Gavin Goy & Wolfgang Lemke, 2026. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest in a Macro-Finance Yield Curve Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 797-809, July.
    2. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Mazin, Felipe & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Reprint of: Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Victor Bystrov, 2018. "Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 333-353, December.
    4. Long, Teng & Bu, Kun & Du, Pengfei & Wang, Zhige, 2024. "Can educational investment mitigate the impact of aging on household leverage ratio?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1335-1347.
    5. Bok, Brandyn & Mertens, Thomas M. & Williams, John C., 2025. "Macroeconomic drivers and the pricing of uncertainty, inflation, and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. José-Luis Peydró [AP BACKUP – NOW EXTERNAL] & Björn Richter & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Crises: New Evidence from History and Administrative Data," Working Papers 1378, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. repec:rim:rimwps:18-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Lastauskas, Povilas & Stakėnas, Julius, 2024. "Labor market policies in high- and low-interest rate environments: Evidence from the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Anthony Brassil, 2022. "The Consequences of Low Interest Rates for the Australian Banking Sector," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2022-04, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Dec 2022.
    11. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    12. Michael Patrick Curran & Matthew J. Fagerstrom, 2019. "Monetary Growth and Financial Sector Wages," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 41, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    13. Taeyoung Doh, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    14. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Herve Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2019. "The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 173-255.
    15. Marius ACATRINEI & Dan ARMEANU & Carmen Elena DOBROTA, 2018. "Natural Interest Rate for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 104-116, September.
    16. Garín, Julio & Lester, Robert & Sims, Eric & Wolff, Jonathan, 2019. "Without looking closer, it may seem cheap: Low interest rates and government borrowing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 28-32.
    17. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
    18. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    20. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : A speech at \"New England Perspectives on Fed Policymaking: A 'Fed Listens' Conference\" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston," Speech 1063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:99956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.