IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedder/y1995iqiip2-12.html

Mexico's crisis: looking back to assess the future

Author

Listed:
  • David M. Gould

Abstract

Mexico's most recent economic crisis took many in the international business community by surprise. In early December 1994, the Blue Chip consensus forecast for 1995 Mexican real GDP growth was 3.8 percent. A few weeks later, on December 20, the devaluation of the Mexican peso rocked international financial markets. What first appeared to be a minor correction in Mexico's nominal exchange rate quickly developed into a broader financial crunch felt in and outside Mexico. The Mexican government now expects the country's real GDP to fall about 3 percent in 1995; some private economists suggest an even greater decline.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Gould, 1995. "Mexico's crisis: looking back to assess the future," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1995:i:qii:p:2-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/er/1995/er9502a.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert O. Hirschman, 1968. "The Political Economy of Import-Substituting Industrialization in Latin America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(1), pages 1-32.
    2. David M. Gould, 1992. "Free trade agreements and the credibility of trade reforms," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 17-27.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Trade Policy, Exchange Rates, and Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Reform, Recovery, and Growth: Latin America and the Middle East, pages 13-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Staiger, Robert W & Tabellini, Guido, 1987. "Discretionary Trade Policy and Excessive Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 823-837, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Sukaj, Rubena, 2021. "Identifying external debt shocks in low- and middle-income countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Amin, 2004. "Time Inconsistency of Trade Policy and Multilateralism," International Trade 0402002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fernández, Raquel, 1997. "Returns to Regionalism: An Evaluation of Non-traditional Gains from RTAs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1634, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Waterbury, John, 1999. "The Long Gestation and Brief Triumph of Import-Substituting Industrialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 323-341, February.
    4. Ramon Moreno, 2001. "Pegging and stabilization policy in developing countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-29.
    5. Conconi, Paola & Perroni, Carlo, 2009. "Do credible domestic institutions promote credible international agreements?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 160-170, September.
    6. Harris, Richard G. & Schmitt, Nicolas, 2001. "Strategic export policy with foreign direct investment and import substitution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 293-312, February.
    7. Bin, Sheng, 2000. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy in China," Working Papers 10/2000, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Management, Politics & Philosophy.
    8. Staiger, Robert W. & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "Rules and discretion in trade policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1265-1277, July.
    9. Kamin, Steven B., 2001. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate-based stabilizations: an empirical examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 237-253, February.
    10. Melkonyan, Tigran A. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1998. "State Trading Companies, Time Inconsistency, Imperfect Enforceability and Reputation," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 18432, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
    11. Brou Daniel & Ruta Michele, 2013. "A Commitment Theory of Subsidy Agreements," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 239-270, January.
    12. Lionel Fontagné & Gianluca Santoni, 2019. "Agglomeration economies and firm-level labor misallocation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 251-272.
    13. Aaron Tornell, 1989. "Inconsistencia dinámica de los programas proteccionistas," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 4(1), pages 61-82.
    14. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2014. "Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-273.
    15. Mauro Boianovsky, 2010. "A View from the Tropics: Celso Furtado and the Theory of Economic Development in the 1950s," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 221-266, Summer.
    16. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    17. Nuno Limão & Patricia Tovar, 2018. "Policy choice: Theory and evidence from commitment via international trade agreements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 6, pages 179-198, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Pavel Kadochnikov, 2006. "An Analysis of Import Substitution in Russia after the 1998 Crisis," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 95P, pages 148-148.
    19. Scartascini, Carlos & Tommasi, Mariano & Ardanaz, Martín, 2010. "Political Institutions, Policymaking, and Economic Policy in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1708, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1995:i:qii:p:2-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.