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The short-run dynamics of long-run inflation policy

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  • John B. Carlson
  • William T. Gavin
  • Katherine A. Samolyk

Abstract

An examination of the short- and long-term implications of an inflation policy on real output, using a method that allows structural interpretation of a simple VAR applied to a macroeconomic system that includes real output and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Carlson & William T. Gavin & Katherine A. Samolyk, 1990. "The short-run dynamics of long-run inflation policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 26-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1990:i:qiii:p:26-35:n:v.26no.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    3. Michael F. Bryan, 1990. "Inflation and growth: working more vs. working better," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    4. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
    5. Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. W. Lee Hoskins, 1990. "A monetary policy for the 1990's," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
    7. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    8. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    9. John F. Boschen & Leonard O. Mills, 1989. "Real and monetary explanations of permanent movements in GNP," Working Papers 89-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. John P. Judd & Bharat Trehan, 1989. "Unemployment-rate dynamics: aggregate-demand and -supply interactions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 20-37.
    14. David E. Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1990. "Inflation and the personal tax code: assessing indexation," Working Paper 9006, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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