IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/y2010isep08n2010-11.html

Unemployment after the recession: a new natural rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Murat Tasci
  • Saeed Zaman

Abstract

The past recession has hit the labor market especially hard, and economists are wondering whether some fundamentals of the market have changed because of that blow. Many are suggesting that the natural rate of long-term unemployment?the level of unemployment an economy can?t go below?has shifted permanently higher. We use a new measure that is based on the rates at which workers are finding and losing jobs and which provides a more accurate assessment of the natural rate. We find that the natural rate of unemployment has indeed shifted higher?but much less so than has been suggested. Surprising trends in both the job-finding and job-separation rates explain much about the current state of the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Tasci & Saeed Zaman, 2010. "Unemployment after the recession: a new natural rate?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Sep.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2010:i:sep08:n:2010-11
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201011
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/economic-commentary/2010/ec-201011-unemployment-after-the-recession/ec-201011-unemployment-after-the-recession-a-new-natural-rate-pdf.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-ec-201011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    2. Guillaume Rocheteau, 2006. "Understanding unemployment," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark, 2012. "Policy rules in macroeconomic forecasting models," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    2. Murat Tasci, 2019. "Challenges with Estimating U Star in Real Time," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue November.
    3. Roy J. Rotheim, 2013. "The economist who mistook his model for a market," Chapters, in: Jesper Jespersen & Mogens Ove Madsen (ed.), Teaching Post Keynesian Economics, chapter 2, pages 34-55, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2012. "A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Murat Tasci & Mary Zenker, 2011. "Labor market rigidity, unemployment, and the Great Recession," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue June.
    6. Patrice Perry–Rivers, 2016. "Stratification, Economic Adversity, and Entrepreneurial Launch: The Effect of Resource Position on Entrepreneurial Strategy," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 40(3), pages 685-712, May.
    7. Mark E. Schweitzer & Murat Tasci, 2013. "What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
    8. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2020. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2431-2464, May.
    9. J. L. Hotchkiss & M. M. Pitts & F. Rios-Avila, 2014. "A search for evidence of skill mismatch in the aftermath of the great recession," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(9), pages 587-592, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaison R. Abel & Richard Deitz, 2017. "Underemployment in the Early Careers of College Graduates following the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 149-181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Seonghee Min & Saheum Hong, 2021. "Fighting the wrong battle: the effects of immigrant inflows on domestic migration of natives versus settled immigrants in the USA," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(1), pages 57-74, February.
    3. Sirola, Nina, 2023. "Going beyond the call of duty under conditions of economic threat: Integrating life history and temporal dilemma perspectives," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Sonia Bhalotra & Martin Karlsson & Therese Nilsson & Nina Schwarz, 2022. "Infant Health, Cognitive Performance, and Earnings: Evidence from Inception of the Welfare State in Sweden," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1138-1156, November.
    5. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    6. Alisdair McKay, "undated". "Idiosyncratic risk, insurance, and aggregate consumption dynamics: a likelihood perspective," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-013, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    7. Lifschitz, Avihai & Setty, Ofer & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2013. "Who Cares about Unemployment Insurance?," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275784, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Lei Fang & Jun Nie, 2014. "Human capital dynamics and the U.S. labor market," Research Working Paper RWP 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Amanda Weinstein & Carlianne Patrick, 2020. "Recession‐proof skills, cities, and resilience in economic downturns," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 348-373, March.
    10. Christian Bredemeier & Roland Winkler, 2017. "The employment dynamics of different population groups over the business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(26), pages 2545-2562, June.
    11. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    13. Haaland, Venke Furre, 2013. "The Lost Generation: Effects of Youth Labor Market Opportunities on Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/8, University of Stavanger.
    14. Andrey Launov, 2021. "Working Time Accounts and Turnover," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 1025-1056, July.
    15. Ofer Setty & Yaniv Yedid-Levi, 2021. "On the Provision of Unemployment Insurance when Workers are Ex-Ante Heterogeneous," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 664-706.
    16. Partridge, Mark D. & Tsvetkova, Alexandra, 2018. "Local ability to "rewire" and socioeconomic performance: Evidence from US counties before and after the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 89313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Francesco D'Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigration, Jobs, And Employment Protection: Evidence From Europe Before And During The Great Recession," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 5, pages 153-185 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Lalé, Etienne, 2020. "The ins and outs of involuntary part-time employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Benedikt Herz & Thijs van Rens, 2020. "Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1619-1654.
    20. Hie Joo Ahn & James Hamilton, 2022. "Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 1-32, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2010:i:sep08:n:2010-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.